Re: SpaceX and RpK Win COTS

Smacks of a slap in the face to Boeing and L-Mart.

Not completely. Lockheed Martin was a subcontractor on 3 of the 6
bids, including Rocketplane Kistler, one of the 2 two who won today.
(or hoped to be, or something. I'm not 100% sure how to interpret
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4700 ).

Now, it isn't clear they are a major subcontractor but as a thought
experiment suppose they are and that the high-cost somehow infects the
COTS effort (I guess for this thought experiment to work it has to
infect both firms, or someone has to persuade NASA to downselect to
one to "reduce duplication" or something). So the first milestone is
met but a bit late, so the company lost some money so far. The second
milestone is even later and the company is getting rather nervous.
What happens then? (a) they walk away (or try to), forgetting about
finishing the contract and getting the rest of the money, (b) they
persuade Congress/NASA to sweeten the pot, paying more for the same
performance, (c) they try to soldier on, but have trouble paying their
staff and other such things, (d) they look for loopholes in the
contract: "oh, you wanted the cargo ship not to crash into the
station? You should have said that. We'd be glad to execute a change
order for an additional fee".

There are various ifs in this scenario, and I present it more in the
vein of "what could go wrong" than as a prediction. Certainly the way
COTS is being procured is a step up from cost-plus. But a sane
procurement is not the only thing that will be needed to make it
succeed.
.

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