Re: Another space race: China & Russia vs. the USA


"Rand Simberg" <simberg.interglobal@xxxxxxxxx> a écrit dans le message de
news: 450e9d90.18276530@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Fri, 15 Sep 2006 07:43:22 +0200, in a place far, far away,
"frédéric haessig" <fhaessig@xxxxxxx> made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Provided Falcon 9 ever flies sucessfully ( it's not a trivial matter to
go
from Falcon-1 to Falcon-9 in a few years ), it will have the capability
to
lanch people in orbit, with a lot to spare. Then, it will need to design
a
manned capsule ( again not impossible but not trivial ) and convince
people
it is safe, which will depend on history of previous falcons.

The capsule prototype has already been built.


Which one? I'm not aware of this. Can you tell me more or provide a link?

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=SpaceX+Dragon&ei=UTF-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&fr=moz2

Thanks for the links, but unless I missed something this actuallty detracts
from your arguments on two points.

1) It's beeing devellopped to a NASA contract, not on private funds so it's
actually a program triggered by a 'socialist bureacracy'.

2) This is currently a development contract. I didn't see anything like your
statement that the prototype has already been built. Did I miss something?
( NB to me a prototype is a 1:1 scale with all functionalities active )

Lastly, but this is a minor point, this capsule is designed to dock on the
US side of the ISS. Which access is totally controlled by NASA. Not really a
place for space tourism. But I grant you the design change to go to a
Bigelow space hotel isn't a huge one.



Currently, I'd
much rather go up in a soyouz, thank you. You can send the luggage and
food
( and hotel ) with a falcon-9. Not to mention that Soyouz is less than
half
the foreseen price for Falcon 9, so you'd need to set at least 7 people
on
your falcon to make it worthwhile ( provided no price change )

Where do you get these numbers? How do you know what the ultimate
price will be for the Falcon, and what are you using for Soyuz?

Annonced price for Falcon-9 : 78 million$ according to Space X documents.

I suspect that there's a lot of margin to reduce that, if there's
enough business.


Funny, I suspect the reverse. Call me pessimist, but I have seen too many
executive summaries for future projects that promised the Moon and failed to
deliver that I never take these as anything but non-biding advertisement.
For me this price is intended to get customers attentions. I wouldn't be
surprised if final price is 25% or more above this.

Price for Soyouz ( based upon the Soyouz at Kourou agreement ) : just
below
40 million, all inclusive ( including CSG fee ). I expect a baikonour or
plesetsk launch to be cheaper.

We'll see if it ever actually launches out of Kourou, and what they
actually end up charging.

Indeed we will and soon. Given that the work is in progress on the launch
pad, that the HW is already flying and that the price ( for government
agencies, at least, but I don't see how they could ask for more from
commercial customers ) is already fixed by legally binding contracts, I
think the risk isn't too great.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Could Falcon 9 compete with the Stick?
    ... this Falcon 9 expandable series looks not unlike the Delta IV series. ... This is highlighted in the price. ... Space-X plans to undercut the Delta IV prices by a huge figure. ... Sea launch and pegasus come in as like ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Northrup Grumman - CEV Prime
    ... >There is talk of a bigger Falcon launcher, ... >how real the design is. ... They sold one of them and have a launch date attached; ... SpaceDev and Lockmart are doing hybrids, Microcosm and SpaceX ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Is Crew Launch Vehicle Too Big?
    ... I don't think offering a fixed price as opposed to a shifting ... government formula is a 'not real' economic context. ... Monday's launch is an event almost as epochal as Space Ship One's ... If the Falcon 9 works for its currently advertised prices, ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Another space race: China & Russia vs. the USA
    ... it will need to design a ... manned capsule and convince people ... the foreseen price for Falcon 9, so you'd need to set at least 7 people on ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Which tube expert can do custom works?
    ... preamp, and its a one-off, so expect the price to be several times ... This trolling nonsense..I dont understand. ... and want to pay for it but after lots of discussion they get nothin. ... I dont want to fucking flesh a design out. ...
    (rec.audio.tubes)