Re: Man-Rating Atlas V


"Will McLean" <mclean1382@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1159844194.097167.78900@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

On the other hand, NASA was probably correct in believing that, all
other things being equal, the fewer launches the better.

The only problem is that all other things aren't equal, are they?

If you replace the stick with the simplest Atlas V, then a two-launch
mission becomes a three-launch mission. This mission should be compared
with other three-launch options, and so on.

I'd like to see NASA doing a better job of showing us how they think Ares
I/V will be cheaper than other options (like EELV's and evolved EELV's).
Are they really including development costs? Are they being realistic about
reoccurring costs?

So far, I've seen a $200 million per launch cost for Ares I. That simply
can't include fixed costs. That's got to be, a very optimistic, projected
cost of a refurbished 5 segment SRB, plus the projected cost of an
expendable upper stage, plus the cost of fuel and oxidizer. I just don't
trust numbers like these since they ignore the extremely high fixed costs
required to sustain Ares.

Your fixed costs aren't nearly as high if you go with an EELV since the
facilities already exist and you get to share those fixed costs with the
EELV's other customers.

Jeff
--
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a
little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor
safety"
- B. Franklin, Bartlett's Familiar Quotations (1919)


.

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