Establish demand

If the total cost of the shuttle program, about $150G, were divided by
the total number of launches, almost 120, and pretending that each
mission delivered 30 tons to orbit, the cost per pound would be over
$20000. Now make the wild assed assumption (WAA?) that we could have
a RLV, in the range of twenty tons to leo, like the largest of the
falcon 9 series or a delta IV, that made deliveries for $4000/Kg, but
only if it is launched atleast a dozen times a year. That would be 240
tons to leo for a bit under $1G. What could utilize the payload space
that might win public support and not run more than four times it's
delivery price.
Water, or bulk propellants have been suggested, but I don't think this
will make the kids all starry eyed.

The Keck telescopes have a bit over 16 times the light collection area
of the HST and are made of 36 mirror segments. Most of the 270 ton
weight and $100M cost is to keep the structure rigid against
gravitational distortion. Building a succession of assemblable space
telescopes, ASTs, would be a real coup for astronomy. Along with its
robotic and/or human assemblers it would use up a few hundred tons of
capacity over a decade.
Robotic water prospectors at the moons pole could eat up another
hundred. A VP assembled mass driver would be good for a couple of
years worth of cargos, but it would be a greater advance than was
landing a man on the moon.
Mastering the art of drilling on Phobos, and returning samples, could
easily call for another 200 worth, as would setting down half a dozen
rugged rovers on the geological feast that is Mars.

Of course this is so much handwaving on my part. I can atleast dream
of a leadership that chops and pounds with its hands, while
proclaiming a new age of space exploration and enterprise, on a $5G/yr
budget, something like Kennedy did 46 years ago.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Establish demand
    ... the total number of launches, almost 120, and pretending that each ... mission delivered 30 tons to orbit, the cost per pound would be over ... falcon 9 series or a delta IV, that made deliveries for $4000/Kg, but ... Since demonstrably we do not yet have RLV technology, the rational approach indicated that we should first attempt less ambitious variations of existing ELV techniques, for instance, recovery of the first stages, demonstration of cryogenic expendable single stage to orbit, etc. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Establish demand
    ... the total number of launches, almost 120, and pretending that each ... mission delivered 30 tons to orbit, the cost per pound would be over ... falcon 9 series or a delta IV, that made deliveries for $4000/Kg, but ... Since demonstrably we do not yet have RLV technology, the rational approach indicated that we should first attempt less ambitious variations of existing ELV techniques, for instance, recovery of the first stages, demonstration of cryogenic expendable single stage to orbit, etc. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Practical space travel and unlimited growth
    ... that flow is given by the cost of imparting that momentum. ... World shipping today is approximately 6.5 billion tons loaded each ... Obviously, beamed energy from ... solar sources in space to any user throughout the solar system ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Low Cost Hydrogen is here to stay
    ... fact 3.34 billion tons of hydrogen would displace ALL OTHER FUELS. ... At present the lowest cost way of making hydrogen is the shift ... TW of solar panels if the panels are located in a region that hs ...
    (sci.energy.hydrogen)
  • Re: Space-based power makes CNN.com - comments may be entertaining
    ... Once again the true birth to grave cost of your spaced ... based energy is only off by way of ten fold under what it'll actually ... Space solar power had certain advantages and disadvantages. ... billion and produces 425 million tons of hydrogen per year. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
Loading