Re: Bigelow Aerospace business plans

Joe Strout wrote:
In article <4623c572.2066958953@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
fairwater@xxxxxxxxx (Derek Lyons) wrote:

Joe Strout <joe@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

http://www.spacetoday.net/Summary/3722

Pretty neat. $15M for a 4-week stay on orbit; that's quite an improvement over $20M for a 5-day stay. And $88M/year to lease your own 300-m^3 space station module? That's a real bargain.
That's a _prediction_, not a bargain, based on zero experience and
much speculation.

No, $15M for a 4-week stay really is a bargin. But you may choose to believe that it's a bargain that will never be available.

In such an environment, I can imagine a lot of smaller countries developing an astronaut corps that way. NASA will look a bit foolish when there are twice as many Japanese astronauts on orbit as Americans, and they're paying a fraction of what we pay for that capability.
They are also getting a fraction of the capability - or did you miss
the difference between being a passenger and being an operator? (My
guess is that did, seeing that you call them astronauts.)

I call them astronauts because they *are* astronauts, by common definition (as are people who go into space suborbitally -- but that's right, you never admitted that SpaceShipOne was a space ship, did you?).

But you're right, there's a difference between an operator (who spends most of his time keeping the facility running) and a visitor (who has a lot more time to pursue other goals, whatever those might be). Yet another reason for the Japanese (or Indian, or Brazilian, or whatever) astronauts to appreciate a commercial facility.

There have been many powerpoints projecting starting points lower than
anything the goverment can do. Note how many have actually borne
fruit.

Did you notice that Genesis I is over our heads right now? Bigelow builds much more than powerpoints. But don't let reality get in the way of your undying pessimism.

And once there are regular paying customers, prices will continue to come down and performance will go up, both in the launchers and in the
on-orbit facilities. Bigelow won't long be the only player in that space. And besides direct competitors, there will be lots of room for
support companies providing on-orbit fuel, power, tug service, and
much more. Real space infrastructure at last!
Ahh... and the closing hymm of "Marching Hand in Hand to a Brilliant
Future" rings out of the chorus!

Pretty much, yes. And I'm sure, when we're all vacationing on the Moon, you'll still be here denying that any of it represents real progress.

The extreme of irrational pessimism is no more sensible than the extreme of irrational optimism. Reality is in between. We're not making progress as rapid as we might like, and things aren't going to change overnight -- but we ARE making significant progress, and things are going to change over the next decade far more than they changed in, say, the 1990s. Your habit of nay-saying everything, which probably served you well back then, just makes you look blind and foolish now.

The space tourism analogy is very similar to what we do now, entertain wealthy individuals at great expense and great risk, 250 miles from Miami, on a small desert island. Bill Gates et al. has already visited Musha Cay, albeit in his megayacht, and I even saw a picture of that visit on the internet already. The environment is much more radical, and the technological expertise requirements are much more demanding, but operationally it's pretty much the same as what we do out there right now. What I'm working on developing is the Twin Otter of space flight. That twin otter will necessarily have to function as the megayacht.

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Bigelow Aerospace business plans
    ... That's a real bargain. ... when there are twice as many Japanese astronauts on orbit as Americans, ... you'll still be here denying that any of it represents real progress. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Bigelow Aerospace business plans
    ... The hardware not only isn't on orbit, ... when there are twice as many Japanese astronauts on orbit as Americans, ... don't care about facts - just about your fantasies. ... If I was in the habit of nay saying, you'd have a point Joe. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Bigelow Aerospace business plans
    ... That's a real bargain. ... when there are twice as many Japanese astronauts on orbit as Americans, ... and the closing hymm of "Marching Hand in Hand to a Brilliant ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Alt Hist--NASA done right?
    ... Establish a permanent base on the Moon. ... Ken from Chicago shouldn't be asking what if's like this if he fails ... I'm constantly mixing up the name for the 1970s space lab in orbit (tho ... It's a PR move and training move for astronauts. ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Re: LSAM and an unmanned CEV in lunar orbit?
    ... >What are the risks of having an unpiloted CEV in orbit, ... >leaving a pilot onboard while the LSAM lands? ... Especially in lunar orbit with no magnetic ... >How do four astronauts on the Moon make it a "better" mission than ...
    (sci.space.history)