Re: Yet Another Roswell Thread

On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
I think we need to shorten the quotes a bit. So I have just kept those
on Israel.

Re Communications - I think it is true to say that the main influence
on us throughout our lives is peer group pressure. If peers are
exceptionally conservative then, I will accept, it will be very
difficult for new ideas to emerge.

In fact if you look at a complex modern society, Western society to
take an example there are many different peer groups. Paul Erdos was a
pioneer of graph theory and he had a concept called your Erdos number.
That is no say the number of people of people you know, lines on your
graph. How many people would you have to pass through before you
reached Paul Erdos. Paul Erdos himself had an Erdos number of 0 his
friends were 1 and their friends were 2 etc. In a modern world it is
surprising how few stages you actually have to pass though before you
got to (say) President Bush.

Now the receptiveness of a society to new ideas is, I will accept, a
product of many things.

1) The amount of communication. This is also coupled to Erdos numbers.
Myself and Bush have a low E number because it is now possible for
people in Britain to know people in America. In ancient times minimum
Erdos numbers were the distances in kilometres divided by some
constant. The Erdos walking constant.

2) Whether ideology encourages or discourages innovation.

I think too we should divide innovation into different types.

1) Technological. This tends to be readily taken up.
2) Scientific likewise.
3) Religious and personal. This depends on whether or not we have a
free society. Whether in fact your peer group is tolerant of diversity
or not.
4) The way society is organized. This depends on the perceptions of
the ruling class.

If you apply graph theory to a Western free society, you will find
subgroups which are anything but free in their outlook. In fact the
characteristics of a jihadi is one who.

a) Clicks on poisonous sites.
b) Has a non Western graph of friends who also click on these sites.

It is also not entirely true that pre industrial societies stagnated.
They did not advance as fast as post industrial. I am English and more
familiar with English history. The Tudors (16th cent) were tyrants.
The Stuart dynasty that followed them found out that what was
acceptable in the 16th century was not acceptable in the 17th.

A society controlled in all its aspects by one man can stagnate, but
no modern society, in the Middle East or elsewhere is quite like that.

If you had AI and applied graph theory the results I think would be
illuminating and I think anyway would give an insight into the way
change might be brought about.


The only way for peace is the acceptance by both parties they have a
right to be where they are at the present time. That means
Palestinians have to give up the hope of pushing Jews into the ocean,
and also at the same time Jews have to stop pushing Palestinians off
theyr land with theyr settlement policy.

Along with the peace plan the economic situation has to be dealt with,
as far as I can see the only other way to reduce the power of the
extremist factions is to make the overall situation of the Palestinian
people less bleak.

With current policies Israel is constanty deepening the hole in which
the overall situation appears stuck. With most Palestinians being out
of work, extremists have got an allmost limitless reqruitment pool.
That has resulted in a growing instability among the Palestinans. That
reqruitment pool of out of work young people needs to be shrunk
rapitly as possible as a part of the overall peace settlement strategy
so may have any hope whatsoever of success.

I think a third thing has to happen. The Palestinians must have
economic progress. Politicians often miss the link between politics
and economics. On the military side there is one issue the Palestinian
fringe groups. The only military force on the Israeli side is the IDF.
This is a disciplined force that does what the government tells it to.
The "Swords of Islam" or some other fringe group would continue
fighting even if Fatah stopped.

This is what I was talking about when I said that you needed (in the
present state of technology) a disproportionate security response for
a small group. This wreks economics which is in fact the main basis
for a settlement.

67 borders, end of belligerency and a bit of haggling over that status
of East Jerusalem must be the components of any settlement. Barak
nearly achieved this. Basically if Israelis really thought there was a
chance of peace, the IDF would come in and demolish all settlements.
It is just not worth the price. The settlers are in fact reling on the
fact the there is no prospect of peace and so they will bag what they
can.


- Ian Parker


.

Relevant Pages

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