Re: Yet Another Roswell Thread


Ian Parker wrote:
On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
I think we need to shorten the quotes a bit. So I have just kept those
on Israel.

Re Communications - I think it is true to say that the main influence
on us throughout our lives is peer group pressure. If peers are
exceptionally conservative then, I will accept, it will be very
difficult for new ideas to emerge.

In fact if you look at a complex modern society, Western society to
take an example there are many different peer groups. Paul Erdos was a
pioneer of graph theory and he had a concept called your Erdos number.
That is no say the number of people of people you know, lines on your
graph. How many people would you have to pass through before you
reached Paul Erdos. Paul Erdos himself had an Erdos number of 0 his
friends were 1 and their friends were 2 etc. In a modern world it is
surprising how few stages you actually have to pass though before you
got to (say) President Bush.

Now the receptiveness of a society to new ideas is, I will accept, a
product of many things.

1) The amount of communication. This is also coupled to Erdos numbers.
Myself and Bush have a low E number because it is now possible for
people in Britain to know people in America. In ancient times minimum
Erdos numbers were the distances in kilometres divided by some
constant. The Erdos walking constant.

On the continent of Europe, most trading routes were along the rivers,
and trading centers tended to be reachable by boat. Boattravel, even
with riverboats of the ancient world was faster than a man walking,
but not faster than a man riding; but a boat could carry a greater
load.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
2) Whether ideology encourages or discourages innovation.

There is an additional factor, which may be even stronger. This is
even relevant today. But according to research of poor peasants, and
simple farming communities in Africa and ellsewhere, it has been
concluted tjat for people living close to bare susbistence levels, any
attempt at a change is highly risky for them. As they have so litle,
they literally can´t afford to try out a new thing if there is any
risk of failure.

During ancient times most farming communities didn´t have a large
surplus, though as farming technology improved at a slow pace century
after century the wealth of goods being produced by farming improved.
That may explane why late stonage farming communities, and bronse age
farming communities tended to be replased rather than evolve.

One of the big changes during the industrial revolution has been the
real growth of average wealth, and real increase in opportunities.
That may mean also that innovation has become less risky. As we have
more, we can afford to loose some without threat of starvation, we can
more readily affort to take risks. That may conceivably be the single
biggest cause of the change we are speaking about.

Old farming communities while better off than ancient ones, were still
significantly porer than a typical inhabitant of a modern industrial
city. That may therefore have been a large reason for theyr relative
much greater concervatism.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
I think too we should divide innovation into different types.

1) Technological. This tends to be readily taken up.
2) Scientific likewise.
3) Religious and personal. This depends on whether or not we have a
free society. Whether in fact your peer group is tolerant of diversity
or not.
4) The way society is organized. This depends on the perceptions of
the ruling class.

If you apply graph theory to a Western free society, you will find
subgroups which are anything but free in their outlook. In fact the
characteristics of a jihadi is one who.

a) Clicks on poisonous sites.
b) Has a non Western graph of friends who also click on these sites.

It is also not entirely true that pre industrial societies stagnated.
They did not advance as fast as post industrial. I am English and more
familiar with English history. The Tudors (16th cent) were tyrants.
The Stuart dynasty that followed them found out that what was
acceptable in the 16th century was not acceptable in the 17th.

That will depend on the time period in question. Pre-iron age farming
communities appear to have been much less productive than iron age
farming communities. Being better off, iron-age farming communities
and later post Roman era European farming communities may have been
less concervative than the older tech. farming communities of the
ancient eras.

I was talking, remember, about the first European farming communities
which belonged to the late stone age of Europe. They predate even the
Egyptian state, even though they last into theyr era.

Naturally, the European farming commuities of the much later post
Roman era, were far superior. The reason I went so far back in time
was that, even at that very early period there were widespread
traderouts, and each year on the relevant season the farming
communities put theyr products aboard theyr river boats, moved them
over to the established trading centers where these goods were traded
with goods of the hunting/gathering tribes that then were still around
in wide areas in Europe. This situation lasted for thousands of years.

Simply demonstrating the precense of regular communication over a long
time period, yet without the transfer of ideas.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
A society controlled in all its aspects by one man can stagnate, but
no modern society, in the Middle East or elsewhere is quite like that.

Well, in India the caste system may have discouraged change and
encouraged stagnation. In China the traditional Kon-fu-ze philosophy
may have done the same thing. In Japan the traditional ancestor
religion may have done the same.

In traditional tribal sozieties, the elders are the leaders, and the
emphasis tends to be on the importance of traditions which is tought
to the young ones.

I´m not familiar with any muslim or christian religious tenets which
may have hampered technological change. I think wealth is a factor.
Muslim societies were for a time wealthy and powerful, later when
Europe took over the trade with India and Chinga by sailing across the
oceans they fell on hard times. That may have been the real reason for
the stagnation that happened.

The wealth of European societies began to grow at the same time. That
greater wealth effect may have begun to speed up technological change
as early as the 16th. century.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 16 Jul, 14:20, eina...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
If you had AI and applied graph theory the results I think would be
illuminating and I think anyway would give an insight into the way
change might be brought about.


The only way for peace is the acceptance by both parties they have a
right to be where they are at the present time. That means
Palestinians have to give up the hope of pushing Jews into the ocean,
and also at the same time Jews have to stop pushing Palestinians off
theyr land with theyr settlement policy.

Along with the peace plan the economic situation has to be dealt with,
as far as I can see the only other way to reduce the power of the
extremist factions is to make the overall situation of the Palestinian
people less bleak.

With current policies Israel is constanty deepening the hole in which
the overall situation appears stuck. With most Palestinians being out
of work, extremists have got an allmost limitless reqruitment pool.
That has resulted in a growing instability among the Palestinans. That
reqruitment pool of out of work young people needs to be shrunk
rapitly as possible as a part of the overall peace settlement strategy
so may have any hope whatsoever of success.

I think a third thing has to happen. The Palestinians must have
economic progress. Politicians often miss the link between politics
and economics. On the military side there is one issue the Palestinian
fringe groups. The only military force on the Israeli side is the IDF.
This is a disciplined force that does what the government tells it to.
The "Swords of Islam" or some other fringe group would continue
fighting even if Fatah stopped.

This is what I was talking about when I said that you needed (in the
present state of technology) a disproportionate security response for
a small group. This wreks economics which is in fact the main basis
for a settlement.

67 borders, end of belligerency and a bit of haggling over that status
of East Jerusalem must be the components of any settlement. Barak
nearly achieved this. Basically if Israelis really thought there was a
chance of peace, the IDF would come in and demolish all settlements.
It is just not worth the price. The settlers are in fact reling on the
fact the there is no prospect of peace and so they will bag what they
can.


- Ian Parker

There must be a realization that terrorism can´t be ended in a moment.
That can only be done gradually by redusing the pool of potential
reqruits for terror, which appear primarilly to be young people with
litle hope of jobs. There must be a realization that methods that harm
the average well being of the Palestinian people are only likelly to
increase the influence of radical terrorist organizations. It will
have to be accepted that for some time afterwards there will be a
degree of terrorism, which hopefully over time will fade away.


It would be a really bad thing if al-Qaeda got a foothold among the
Palestinians. So far the different groups, the Hamas and the PLO along
with theyr respective umbrella groups, have been able to keep other
groups more or less out.

I´m actually in the minority position that think that takeve of Hamas
on the Gasa Strip may actually provite some side benefits. During the
months of struggle for control between PLO and Hamas there it really
looked like both groups were loosing control over that area, i.e. that
other perhaps even nastyer groups were gaining a foothold. Now, with a
single group in power there, they may be able to keep a lid on things.
It will though depend on what the Hamas does think to be in its
interest.

Personally I think the Hamas will now concentrate on the West Bank. In
the meantime they will prefer the Gasa Strip to be quiet. It will be
very interesting to watch what will happen next.

Clearly the gowernment of Israel is worried. Precident Bush has also
been making noises about support to the Palestinian Authority. But, I
actually doubt that will really aid the PLO in its struggle against
the Hamas. The contrary may acually prove to come true. I wonder what
will happen if the Hamas gains control over the West Bank as well.
That outcome may not be very unlikelly.

Cheers, Einar

.

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