Re: Yet Another Roswell Thread


Ian Parker wrote:
On 21 Jul, 03:46, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Israel and the US will be forced to negotiate with Iran.


A likelly development in Iraq looks to me that it will develope into
some kind of a war in proxy between Iran and the sunny powers. Iran
will support the shites and the sunni countries will support the
sunnis. That kind of thing could maintain that war for quite a long
time. Iran might perhaps use the Hesbollah as well, and try to
radicalize *** minorities around the Middle East.

The interesting question is where this leaves Israel. Could Iran ever
forge an anti Sunni alliance with Isreal? It would certainly make good
realpolitical sense. I think there is one historical precedent in that
Richlieu was a Catholic cardinal who supported the Protestants during
the Thirty Years War. A Catholic victory would have consolidated the
power of the Hapsburgs that would not have been in the interests of
France.

The countries bordering Israel are all predomentantly Sunni. A Shiite
Iraq would in fact be the equivalent of a Hapsburg defeat as far as
Isreal is concerned. Iran in its turn would want to keep the Sunnis
occupied in the West. The point is that countries often act in ways
contrary to their stated ideology.

You remember the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." So, the
real politic question then is who is the greater threat, not in the
past, but right now and in the near future? France decided to aid the
protestants because the leadership of France saw the attempts of the
German emperor to forge a unified state out of the German empire as
the greater threat to the interests of France. The leaders of France
saw that a unified German empire would be stronger than France,
something which ultimatelly came true once Germany was finally unified
during the 1870s. So it was with certain foresight and string does of
irony, but France massacred its own protestants, that France aided the
Protestants in theyr struggle against the armies of the German
emperor.

Now, when thinking about Israel the question then is, which is the
Greater threat the rise of Iran or the squabbling sunni states. I
think the reply to that is clear, Iran clearly has the potential to be
more dangerous. I suspect that in the near future, remember how
likelly it probably is that the sunnis will essentially come to be
fighting Iran inside Iraq, the Sunnis also will see Iran as the more
immediate threat.

Now, if that is so, then the old saying "the enemy of my enemy is my
friend" may come to apply, namelly a real chance may arise for a
durable peacetreaty betwenn the sunni powers and Israel.

Ian Parker wrote:
BTW - Any attempt to enforce US sanctions on Iran in Europe will
simply consolidate the position of Russia as the prime energy supplier
to Europe. Russia is going to continue business with Iran regaredless
of what Uncle Sam does. The US will find that it is not in a position
to pich and choose its energy suppliers. Putin (and his successor
Ivanov) are aware of this even if Bush is not. Russia might even build
a pipeline which would enable Iran to export oil overland via the
Russian oil/gas network. Thus the Straight of Hormuz could be blocked
off with impunity. Does Bush and the CIA know this. Have they twigged
it.

There is litle doubt that an embargo on Iran will be full of holes,
thus not effective.

Ian Parker wrote:

What may develope is some sort of a regional Cold War struggle. Most
certainly USA has developed the situation into Iranian hands. The
sunni Arabs must be seeing the actions of the Bush regime as an
absolute catastrophe.

That it why I call it the Central Stupidity Agency. Bush has bolstered
Iran though he never intended to. Is it an absolute catastophe for
Israel and the West? Remains to be seen. Certainly if you want to
smash Al Qaeda, Iran is certainly going to do that. I can see Al Qaeda
being smashed, but on the other hand Iran and Russia will get a
stranglehold on energy supplies. We need a lot more scientific
research. I believe the US should pull out of Iraq devoting part of
the money to nuclear power, solar energy and the extraction of methane
hydates.

Yes, Iran is no friend of al-Qaeda, which is orcestrating attacks
against shites inside Iraq.

Bush junior may come to be seen as the worst precident in the entire
history of the USA.

Ian Parker wrote:

I actually don´t agree that Iran controls the Hamas. The Hamas is a
sunni movement, not a *** movement. That is an important difference.
Hamas like the PLO is a people´s movement of the Palestinian people.
They are more religious while the PLO has had a more secular
nationalistic outlook. They are essentially competing for the hearts
and minds of theyr people, i.e. the Palestinans. In latter times Hama
has been gaining while PLO has been loosing ground.

If Hamas has been taking Iranian money, they I have litle doubt are
doing that for pragmatic reasons. But, I feel certain that Iran has
litle actual influence on the Hamas.

I don't know, you may be right. Confessional labels (as with Richlieu)
may be misleading.


- Ian Parker

Cheers, Einar

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