Re: Yet Another Roswell Thread


Ian Parker wrote:
On 21 Jul, 22:09, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

The interesting question is where this leaves Israel. Could Iran ever
forge an anti Sunni alliance with Isreal? It would certainly make good
realpolitical sense. I think there is one historical precedent in that
Richlieu was a Catholic cardinal who supported the Protestants during
the Thirty Years War. A Catholic victory would have consolidated the
power of the Hapsburgs that would not have been in the interests of
France.

The countries bordering Israel are all predomentantly Sunni. A Shiite
Iraq would in fact be the equivalent of a Hapsburg defeat as far as
Isreal is concerned. Iran in its turn would want to keep the Sunnis
occupied in the West. The point is that countries often act in ways
contrary to their stated ideology.

You remember the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." So, the
real politic question then is who is the greater threat, not in the
past, but right now and in the near future? France decided to aid the
protestants because the leadership of France saw the attempts of the
German emperor to forge a unified state out of the German empire as
the greater threat to the interests of France. The leaders of France
saw that a unified German empire would be stronger than France,
something which ultimatelly came true once Germany was finally unified
during the 1870s. So it was with certain foresight and string does of
irony, but France massacred its own protestants, that France aided the
Protestants in theyr struggle against the armies of the German
emperor.

Now, when thinking about Israel the question then is, which is the
Greater threat the rise of Iran or the squabbling sunni states. I
think the reply to that is clear, Iran clearly has the potential to be
more dangerous. I suspect that in the near future, remember how
likelly it probably is that the sunnis will essentially come to be
fighting Iran inside Iraq, the Sunnis also will see Iran as the more
immediate threat.

Now, if that is so, then the old saying "the enemy of my enemy is my
friend" may come to apply, namelly a real chance may arise for a
durable peacetreaty betwenn the sunni powers and Israel.

I see your logic. I am not absolutely certain. It depends whether you
perceive terrorism or conventional war to be the major threat. The
problem Israel faces is that it does not have anyone to negotiate
with. The Palestinians complain constantly about Israeli security
measures.

If you had one power Iran terrorism would be met by a conventional
response (air raids). Terrorism would ultimately lead to a
conventional war. You can have conventional war where you have an
address.

Iran would be a power that was interested in stability. Squabbling
Sunni states cannot hope for a conventional victory yet they are
extremely effective at spreading chaos and instability + economic
decline and popular discontent.

The West by the way is not threatened by conventionall war. The US
will win any conventional war relatively easily. What it is in fact
threatened with is an unstable region and popular discontent. If there
is discontent in Iran or any strong country it will either be taken on
board or suppressed repessively.

I think terrorism is a minor threat. They cain maintain a certain
nuisance level, but that´s basigly all what they have been capable of
being. Iran is interested in power. They are not at likelly to go to a
direct war with the sunni states. But, it looks likelly that in the
coming years they´ll become a nuclear power. They do have got
ballistic missile technology. So it looks likelly that eventually they
´ll aquire the capability to nuke Israel and for that any other
country within the region. The sunnis will feal very threatened,
lurking behind the background is an old hatred between sunnis and
shites which could rise to the foreground. They are likelly to be
fighting Iran soon in a proxy war inside Iraq. Iran could perhaps make
use of varyous *** minorities about the Middle East. The sunnis are
likelly to use repression against those. These gowernments after all
are not particularly noted for being nice, and sunni minorities tend
to have a second class citizen status of one sort or another. A
situation ripe for trouble.

The question then is which side will appear more threathening to
Israel? My guess is that Iran with its nukes, and gowernment of
mullas, will look like the greater threat.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 21 Jul, 22:09, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:


BTW - Any attempt to enforce US sanctions on Iran in Europe will
simply consolidate the position of Russia as the prime energy supplier
to Europe. Russia is going to continue business with Iran regaredless
of what Uncle Sam does. The US will find that it is not in a position
to pich and choose its energy suppliers. Putin (and his successor
Ivanov) are aware of this even if Bush is not. Russia might even build
a pipeline which would enable Iran to export oil overland via the
Russian oil/gas network. Thus the Straight of Hormuz could be blocked
off with impunity. Does Bush and the CIA know this. Have they twigged
it.

There is litle doubt that an embargo on Iran will be full of holes,
thus not effective.

It will still be effective in transferring power to Russia and China.

Depends on how Russia and China will play that situation, but yes both
may gain.

Ian Parker wrote:
On 21 Jul, 22:09, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

What may develope is some sort of a regional Cold War struggle. Most
certainly USA has developed the situation into Iranian hands. The
sunni Arabs must be seeing the actions of the Bush regime as an
absolute catastrophe.

That it why I call it the Central Stupidity Agency. Bush has bolstered
Iran though he never intended to. Is it an absolute catastophe for
Israel and the West? Remains to be seen. Certainly if you want to
smash Al Qaeda, Iran is certainly going to do that. I can see Al Qaeda
being smashed, but on the other hand Iran and Russia will get a
stranglehold on energy supplies. We need a lot more scientific
research. I believe the US should pull out of Iraq devoting part of
the money to nuclear power, solar energy and the extraction of methane
hydates.

Yes, Iran is no friend of al-Qaeda, which is orcestrating attacks
against shites inside Iraq.

Bush junior may come to be seen as the worst precident in the entire
history of the USA.

Historically power passing to Asia may be inevitable, but it will be
speeded up enormously by the actions of GWB. One other point. I am
giving my AI examples to you in french. Fred McCall states, almost
proudly, that he does not know Spanish. My reply to him was a matter
of pure population statistics. US + Lattin America can form a block
which will rival Asian countries. The US has been very good at NOT
winning friends in Latin America. This is another part of the
geopolitical equation and one that is often glossed over.

- Ian Parker

China is going to become a more powerful state than the USA. So is
India in time, though bit longer into the future. USA can maintain a
strong postition in alliance with other states. This is the great
idiocy of the neoconcervatives, the idea that the USA is a hyperpower
and that thus it can act alone without anybody ellses consent. All the
past gowernments of USA from the WW2 have known USA needs its allies,
that simply hasen´t changed. USA will continue to need its allies.
That means, USA will have to accept that somtimes, if the allies don´t
agree, it is not getting its way. Even in the future with two
superpowers, India and China, USA with Europe and number of other
allies, can maintain a position as the third power.

Einar

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