Re: The Economic Development of the Moon

Len <len@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

:On Nov 19, 1:38 pm, Fred J. McCall <fmcc...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
:> Alex Terrell <alexterr...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
:>
:> :
:> :Imagine this scenario: 2020, and NASA's first six month long mission
:> :is prospecting. They visit aan old impact site, and find some metal
:> :fragments with 10% platinum group metals. A quick analysis of the site
:> :provides an estimate of 1,000 tons of PGMs mixed in with about 10
:> :million tons of copper, iron, nickel and related metals scattered over
:> :a few km2.
:> :
:> :What would happen then?
:> :
:> :Earth prices might fall somewhat, but I suspect lunar exploration
:> :might speed up somewhat.
:> :
:>
:> Too expensive to retrieve. There's be no appreciable market effects
:> here on Earth. With any luck, this would help provide a driver to
:> lower transport costs, but even that is the tip of the iceberg.
:>
:
:Here we go again, Fred. What makes you think that
:the stupid way we have gone about getting to LEO
:--and beyond--for the past 45 years is the only way?
:

Here we go again, Len. What makes you think I'm making any such
assumption?

Read what I say and forget about why you might think I'm saying it.
Your assumptions about why I make the comments I do have so far been
pretty well 100% wrong.

The difference between us, Len, is that you seem to be ASSUMING that
some magical event has taken place to drive technology to a specific
place and then you think about all the great things that might mean
while I start from our current reality and postulate things that might
drive it in desirable directions (and recognize those that won't).

It is the parenthetical bit that you have such a problem with. You
want to 'wish' that part away and then postulate how much easier all
the things that will not drive such a technology change would be 'if
only'.


--
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable
man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore,
all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: The Economic Development of the Moon
    ... They visit aan old impact site, ... :fragments with 10% platinum group metals. ... but I suspect lunar exploration ... "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: The Economic Development of the Moon
    ... They visit aan old impact site, ... :fragments with 10% platinum group metals. ... :Earth prices might fall somewhat, ... "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: The Economic Development of the Moon
    ... They visit aan old impact site, ... :>:fragments with 10% platinum group metals. ... but I suspect lunar exploration ... NONE of the technology you need for such an enterprise has been ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: The Economic Development of the Moon
    ... They visit aan old impact site, ... :fragments with 10% platinum group metals. ... :Earth prices might fall somewhat, but I suspect lunar exploration ...
    (sci.space.policy)