Re: We can meet all our needs through space development

On Jan 29, 2:45 pm, Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Jan 29, 7:11 am, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jan 28, 9:05 pm, Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

On Jan 28, 8:18 pm, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jan 28, 6:42 pm, Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

On Jan 28, 4:12 pm, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

That's why I went with an open loop system. That system must be fed -
which needed 21,000 metric tons per day running through it to keep it
going. Triple that amount to replace parts and account for processing
losses.

The initial 1,000 moonlets provide 134 years of support. Of course in
that time everything will have been replaced and upgraded.
It takes a delta vee of about 8 km/sec to bring stuff from the
asteroid belt.

Hmm, I wonder if you are going from the assumption that most of the
asteroyds are solid rock through.

No. I'm assuming that a complete survey of the 300,000 small objects
in the solar system can be completed in a reasonable time, and those
best suited for whatever use was have for them will be brought into an
appropriate orbit.

You see, according to what I have
heard most of them are actually looselly bound by theyr own gravity
piles of rubble.

Some are,some are other things, others are something else. Whatever
is sent back to Earth orbit will have to be engineered and processed
for the voyage.

This apparently came from the realization that most
of the asteroyds appear to have got to litle density in light of theyr

Density is easy to compute. You measure the deflection of a smaller
body that flies by, and divide that by the observed volume.
Asteroidal densities range from something a little less than water to
something a little more. There's no guessing, data exists for Ceres,
and other of the larger minor bodies.

apparent composition. The solution to that conundrum appears to be
that there are empty spaces within as they are only weakly held
together rubble most of 'em.

Some are like this - others are not. In any event,it will be a major
program to work out the details of the transport mechanism I only give
in broad strokes here.

I suspect that most of them would come apart if anyone would attempt
to shift them.

Depends on the details of how its done. It wold be naive to think you
can move them without first processing them somehow. Even something
as simple as a net or bag - depending on the tensile forces involved.

This means that first we would have to do a very
thorough surwey

Yes. We would do that anyway to pick out the best for returning it to
Earth..

of the asteroyd belt, and only attempt to move the
minority which appear not to in theyr past to have been shatterd by a
collision. Such a surwey can naturally be done, but it will take some
time as the asteroyd belt is pretty voluminous.

It could be done rather rapidly if approached correctly.

Miminum energy rockets have delta vee equal exhaust velocity. So,
propellant fraction of 63.21% - so to recieve 21,000 metric tons per
day from the asteroid belt 57,000 metric tons per day must start out
from the ateroid belt - flowing from the asteroid belt 36,000 metric
tons a day is ejected at 8 km/sec.to provide propulsive force.

Ah, I was wondering what you were thinking of as the fuel. Lineral
accelerators I presume. But first we have to find which are solid rock
and which are rubble.

No, because methods can be developed for moving either of those. As I
said, of the 300,000 small bodies in the solar system, only 1,000 fo
the very smallest are needed - if they have the right composition. We
may process entire asteroids in transit to throw away the stuff we
don't need and keep the stuff we do.

That's 417 kg per second - Each kg/sec projected at 8,000 m/sec
requires 32 MJ/sec - so 417 kg per second needs 13.3 GW. So a single
20 GW power satellite with appropriate optics can feed this ring of
satellites.

Here is an Article you may like:

A Solar Grand Plan
By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash
greenhouse gas emissions
By Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakishttp://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan

This is just one fault-point of many I could mentione with your
vision.

Not really, I said explicitly that 21,000 tons per day would be needed
by the ring to keep feeding earth indefinitely. Failing that, I said
the system would run out of resources in 134 years from the initial
1,000 moonlets.

This all then depends on that the asteroyd can actually be used in
that fashion, doesn´t it?

Yes. If you are saying asteroids cannot be moved and cannot be used
in this fashion, its up to you to say why? Most of the material
needed is water - that can be formed into ice, and put inside a highly
reflective shell in vacuum. Ice boils nicely into steam and that can
easily be got up to 8,000 m/sec exhaust speed through a variety of
means using laser energy beamed to the payload.

This sounds more like one would hope that the world at 2099
might be like.

I think its possible to achieve this. When you actually carry out the
engineering calculations you find that the needs are surprisingly
modest, given the return.

Well, remember it´s the things we didn´t reckon with that cath us.

I'm not proposing a single specific course of action, I am proposing a
vision of using the resources of interplanetary space and solar energy
to meet the needs of human industry. If one specific approach doesn't
work, another will. I have merely done the prelminary calculations on
the scale of the problem.

Humanity currently uses 15 TW - capturing 120 GW in space and beaming
to payloads in the asteroid belt, along with payloads entering Earth
orbit, would provide a stream of raw material from the asteroids
sufficient to feed everyone on Earth. This is rather remakrable.
This or that detail may have to work this or that specific way - we
don't know all those details yet before working them out - but to say
in the absence of any clear knowledge that there are definite show
stoppers - is being overly pessimistic. Given that there are few
alternatives - we owe it to ourselves to look at this more closely.

.

Write a schy fy book on this, a suggestion.

I'd prefer it not to be sci-fi - but that's just me.

Einar

thanks for your comments. If you have any other fault points to
discuss I'd like to hear them.

Sure, se abow.

Einar

I wonder if you realize how big really the asteroid belt is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid

Please don't talk down to me. There is no reason to speak to me as if
I were an idiot. Obviously I realize how big the asteroid belt is.
You have ignored the fact that I said previously we'd survey about
300,000 small bodies throughout the solar system that are likely to
meet our needs.

"Hundreds of thousands of asteroids have been discovered within the
solar system and the present rate of discovery is about 5000 per
month. As of January 22, 2008, from a total of 397,495 registered
minor planets, 173,116 have orbits known well enough to be given
permanent official numbers...

Correct, about 300,000 are worth looking at that we know about. - I
already said this. I said nothing about finding new asteroids we
don't know about.

Current estimates put the total number of
asteroids above 1 km in diameter in the solar system to be between 1.1
and 1.9 million.[7]"

But we only need look at the 300,000 that we know about in a region
they are known to exist, and select the 1,000 that are prefectly
suited for what we want to do with them. We obviously will continue
to discover new asteroids, and use them as well as we need them.

I think that a complete surwey will take rather a longer time than a
single decate.

I think you are taking what I said and reading something else into
it.

I never said I wanted to discover new asteroids, although that will
happen. I will select from those asteroids we already know about
those asteroids that are ideally suited for what we have in mind here
- and do this while we're doing other things in parallel and get it
all done in a decade.

There is also the asteroid groups or types, but there is significantly
more of some types than others:

I know that. It has absolutely no impact on our ability to find among
the 300,000 we know about that are candidates, the 1,000 that are
perfectly suited for what we want to do here - and do that in a very
short time period.

The first step is to build a detailed data base from the sources
currently available.

Then to build an array of terrestrial telescopes specifically designed
to survey the asteroids we know in far more detail than currently.

Of the 300,000 in that set we do a preliminary selection of 45,000 or
so that are likely to meet our criterion as feedstock for the orbiting
factories we're designing and building at the same time.

Now, I also assume this starts after solar pumped lasers are in wide
use aboard lightweight power satellites. I already said a small
number of these power satellites will be adapted for power beaming
across interplanetary distances - to power high specific impulse
rockets used to send payloads to asteroids and used to harvest
asteroids.

This beaming capacity will be used early on to reach out and 'touch'
the 45,000 asteroids that make it on first pass. For example an
estimate of their mass is gotten by creating a jet of material and
seeing how it affects trajectory. Composition is obtained through
emission spectra of the jet. Changes in surface texture and structure
in response to the laser blast determine tensile and compressive
strengths - and so forth.

Then of the 45,000 - based on the results of these tests, and the
engineering requirements developed from the factory build out
operating in parallel, 6,700 are selected for a detailed survey.

1000 probes are built and deployed - 25 at a time over a ten month
period - with 40 launches. They are orbited by the reusable heavy
lift launcher described previously built to launch the global wireless
hotspot, and each possess a laser powered propulsion stage that allows
quick transit to the asteroid belt, and each probe is designed to land
on and survey 6 to 7 asteroids..

Of the 6,700 surveyed in this way, 1,000 are selected for retrieval.
The probes are redirected to a selected asteroid each - and each is
equipped to carry out early stage preparations for larger systems to
come.

Laser powered propulsive units that use asteroidal materials as
propellant, are prepared, along with whatever is needed on site to
bring the asteroid safely and reliably back to Earth orbit.

"* C-type asteroids - carbonaceous, 75% of known asteroids
* S-type asteroids - silicaceous, 17% of known asteroids
* M-type asteroids - metallic, 8% of known asteroids"

I am aware of this.

So, metallic asteroids are only a small percentage of the overall, in
addition we have to find the relativelly few that are not shattered
piles of rubble.

Why? Shattered piles of rubble may be precisely what we nee -
depending on the details of how you plan to move them. Since the
industrial infrastructure requires lots of different kinds of
materials, its likely that some aspects of all classes may find
utility in the orbiting factories we're contemplating.

Sounds like a rather bigger task than you may perhaps
have realised.

Please do not talk down to me. I understand full well what I am
suggesting. You have ignored precise figures I gave previously and
then restated them in a way that wrongly suggests I am unaware of
them, and you have not come up with any concrete reasons for your
dismissive attitude. Further, you have failed to explain your
reasoning for concluding that 'shattered piles or rubble' as you call
them are inappropriate for retrieval.

Rubble piles:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubble_pile

I know that these exist. Please explain to me your reasoning why
these cannot be retrieved by the methods I have in mind?

I really think your 2050 is a far to optimystic timeline to resolve
the myriad problems of execution from here to there

Why? You are not only being rude, you are being irrational. What
does the classification of asteroids have to do with the workability
of this program? What does the discovery rate of new asteroids have
to do with selecting the best of the known asteroids? Fact is, you
have trouble getting your mind around the possibility that asteroids
can be used practically today - and are clearly groping for reasons to
dismiss it without giving it a clear analysis.
.

During the meantime, we can use solar energy here on Eart

These are not mutually exclusive. I mentioned that the space
infrastructure would proceed as follows;

0) lowcost terrestrial solar powerhttp://www.usoal.com
1) reusable heavy lift launcher
2) 660 satellite comsat network (global wireless hotspot)
3) laser power satellite (20 GW each)
4) laser propulsion
5) asteroid capture/orbiting factories
6) orbiting farms/forests

The United States burns 1.1 billion tons of coal each year to produce
53% of its electrical power. By burning 178 million tons of hydrogen
instead, and using an aditional 122 million tons to hydrogenate the
stranded coal, a total of 7.7 billion barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel
and jet fuel may be produced, without producing any emissions in the
process. (burning it of course would produce emissions) - but this
turns the US from an oil importer to an oil exporter.

To produce 300 million tons of hydrogen gas each year from 2.7 billion
tons of water using solar panels, requires 45,000 sq km of solar
panels be installed. I have options on over 100,000 sq km of desert
lands throughout Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona - these are large
surface mines slated for closure over the next 15 years. I can build
a square kilometer of solar collector for $12.8 million and generate
180 MW electrical per sq km when the sun shines.

The world presently consumes

28.3 billion barrels of crude oil
5.5 billion tons of coal
2.2 billion tons of natural gas

each year to generate energy at a rate of 15 trillion watts. To
displace all these fuels with hydrogen requires 550,000 sq km of
terrestrial solar collectors. .

Silicon based solar collectors may be driven very efficiently with
1,000 nm wavelength laser light. Using thin film concentrators, multi-
spectral photocells, and free-electron lasers, I can produce laser
energy at 40% conversion efficiency, and beam it to Earth to generate
360 MW per sq km - and not exceed the power level put out by the sun
in the IR. I can power terrestrial panels in this way 24/7 - and so,
an installed base of solar panels may increase their power output 10x
over their non-augmented operation. Thus, by orbiting 45,000 sq km of
power satelites - the principal component of which is thin film
concentrators focusing light at 10,000x intensity onto 6 junction Ge/
GaAS/InPh - photocells - which drive highly efficient free electron
lasers - to produce laser energy at less than $0.10 per watt - I can
provide ALL the world's energy supply without any major increase in
the system.

That is, I can grow from capturing $500 billion per year in margin to
$5 trillion per year, by adding 1,000 power satellites. So given step
0, I justify step 1 and 2 with step 3.

Of course over this period, total demand grows, so everyone
everywhere, is producing as much energy as possible, and even though I
can generate all the world's energy needs within the next 15 years -
everyone in the energy business today,will still be in the energy
business and still growing. We will have reached peak output of oil
and natural gas in this period, but the economy of the world will
continue to grow.

Of the 1,000 satellites, 6 will be used for deep space research in
this period.

I have mentioned elsewhere the 7 element reusable heavy lift
launcher. Each element is similar in size and shape to the space
shuttle External Tank - except stretched by 40%. total mass of each
element is 1,000 metric tons. At the base of each element is an
annular aerospike engine --that is altitude compensating. This nozzel
is fed by three RS-68 pumpsets from the stored propellant. Each
element is equipped with plumbing to arrange for cross feeding. 7
elements operate together at launch. Each engine produces 1,400
metric tons of force. A total of 9,800 metric tons of thrust at lift
off. four of the seven elements drain first, and are dropped. They
re-enter downrange are recovered by a tow plane and towed back to the
launch center. two of the three remaining are drained next, and are
dropped, they re-enter and are recovered as described above. the
final element continues on to orbit - placing 500 tons there.

A fleet of 28 elements operated at 4 launch vehicles, are capable of
lofting 500 tons to LEO every two weeks. 660 satellites in 30
sunsynchronous orbits - of 22 satellites each - create a wireless
broadband service that produces over $82 billion in revenue
worldwide. This is the first step - the entire project costs $50
billion - and is paid for by the energy revenue. Profits from the
communications service pay back the invested capital, and provide
funds for continued research. $82 billion annual revenue is larger
than all the space expenditure of the whole planet.

A 500 ton reusable kick stage is orbited along with a 500 ton
inflatable powersat - and the entire assembly is docked - and sent to
GEO - with recovery of the kick stage.

The kick stage may be adapted for use as an interplanetary stage.

The infrastructure put in place to build the 660 satellites in 15
months - is adapted after launching the network, to produce power
satellites for test with existing terrestrial installations.

Once a power satellite network is operational one power satellite has
its optics adapted for beaming laser energy across interplanetary
distances - and for laser propulsion research.

A laser propulsion unit, operating at 2000 sec Isp - can propel 1,000
tons to LEO with a single 1,000 ton booster element.

mp = 880 tons
mt = 2,000 tons
Isp = 2000 sec
g0 = 9.82 m/s2

Vf = 9.82 * 2000 * LN(1/(1-(880/2000)))
= 19,640.0 m/s * LN(1/(1-0.44))
= 11,387.6 m/s

And the 500 ton kick stage, equipped with a 4,000 sec Isp engine can
propel that 500 ton payload to very high speeds

mp = 440 tons
mt = 1,000 tons
Isp = 4000 sec
g0 = 9.82 m/s2

Vf = 9.82 * 4000 * LN(1/(1-(440/1000)))
= 39,280.0 m/s * LN(1/(1-0.44))
= 22,775.2 m/s

Which is a tremendous capability...

The
article I sent you from ScientificAmerican proposes a plan to replase
the bulk of electricity production in USA during the period from today
to 2050 with solar energy stations on ground. A believable probgram. I
suggest you read it.

Please don't talk down to me. I am a regular reader of Scientific
American, Science and Nature. I suggest you read my websites

http://www.usoal.comhttp://www.mokindustries.com

Know too that I have already achieved $0.07 per peak watt in 2004
using my patented technology (#7,081,584) using CPV technology. I am
sponsoring half a dozen energy projects around the world that when
completed will realize over $40 billion in value for my company.

I will be buying an oil marketer (a company that has gas stations but
no reserves to speak of) and a coal company (a carbon source that can
be converted to hydrocarbons at low cost and no emissions using solar
hydrogen) for less than $12 billion and will create over $350 billion
in market value when merged with my technology - once operating on
this scale.

This increased value will allow me to exercise the options on the land
I have already organized, and allow me to populate the land with low
cost solar panels - and produce hydrogen from water piped into the
sites via electrolysis using alkaline based systems (not PEM) and make
the US an oil exporter again (as well as indonesia) - by 2020.

An agressive program of space development will create a global
wireless broadband service at the same time. By 2030 I will be
augmenting the terrestrial system with space based power and provide
the bulk of the power of planet Earth.

Well before I supply the bulk of the power for planet Earth - filling
the growing gap between exponential growth in energy demand and static
supplies from today's conventional sources - I will convert my heavy
lift launcher to multiple heavy lift laser launchers. That is I will
convert the 28 elements - operated as four vehicles - built to orbit
the comsat network and later used for the early stages of the power
sat network - to 28 high specific impulse reusable single stage laser
propelled vehicles described above.

This will allow one launch placing 1000 tons into GEO - or a 1000 ton
interplanetary stage - every 6 hours.

This will first be used to increase the rate at which the power
satellites are put in place. Later it will be adapted to send survey
craft to chosen asteroids, as well as send recovery teams to the
asteroids, and industrial teams to the captive asteroids in Earth
orbit.

Starting in 2030, I'll be ready to go by 2035 - and complete the ring
I described at first (along with another for industrial production and
another for fiber paper wood production) - by 2045.

I will be in my early 90s - but by then 90 will be the new 40..> Einar

Einar- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It´s all interesting and all that to observe your pye in the sky
figures. The problem with them your assumptions are so far beyond what
one hears ellsewhere, which explains my deep scepticism...like
expectations of 13% efficiency not 40% as you appear to assume with
solar energy. A large difference.

The program I find believable assumed that it will take some years to
achieve that 13% efficiency, as current mass produced solar cells do
not achieve more than 10%, so federal funded development effort is
assumed to bring the efficiencies up to 13%...which they assume to be
the necessary minimum to make theyr program work.


I can only assume that you are expecting what is now only possible in
controlled laboratory settings will become practical mass production,
which by the way is not an obvious assumption.

I simply must disbelieve your figures until you can give some idea how
you are arriving at them.


By the way, the asteroid project you appear to be assuming sounds
really seriously expensive. It would be cheaper to send small ion
powered probes to check on the asteroids. After all they´d need to be
observed close up, as you appear to realize. The problem with Earth
observatories is that at the distance we are talking about, the pixels
have become pretty large. So even the best of them will only give a
very rough idea what to expect.

The problem with rubble piles is that they can´t be shifted, lest they
come apart. You´d need some sort of a factory ship on the spot, is my
expectation.

You appear not to consider solar sails as propulsion method, but they
have the merit of not needing fuel and would also benefit from your
lasers you assume will be plased in the viscinity of the Sun.

The thing with asteroids, would be gentle movements. Sounds very
doubtful that even the solid ones would be able to handle rapit rates
of movement, so gentle acceleration perhaps like 0,001g or even
0,0001g which would make solar sails ideal. In addition, as you think
rubble piles can be strapped together in some fashion...a delicate
operation for certain, I think you´d prefer towing to pulling. In fact
towing may be preferable to pulling.

In addition it´s necessary to consider the effects on the other
asteroids. The path chosen has to be very carefully worked out, as
after all you really don´t whish to make other asteroids careen out of
theyr orbits. That means it´s very unlikely that some sort of a direct
trajectory towards the Earth will prove practical. More probably it
will be necessary to take several orbits around the Sun, before an
asteroid can be finally moved out of the belt proper.

I think it would be reasonable to reckon with 5 - 10 years of gentle
moving and nudging untill Earth orbit. It may even be that 15 - 20
years would even be necessary for the more fragile or distant ones.


Now, your ideas sound very nice, but your figures sound to good to be
true.

Einar
.

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