Re: We can meet all our needs through space development

In that case, and if going bigger is most always better off, such as
in my terrestrial tower footprints offering a human and environment
friendly 40 kw/m2 of squeaky clean energy density per given footprint,
whereas then you above all should also be going along with my LSE-CM/
ISS plan of action that offers up those multiple teraWatts of
perfectly clean and renewable off-world energy that's extremely nearby
and easily imported or transferred back to Earth, as well as for
accomplishing our moon itself that's offering us a nearly unlimited
cache of 3He/Fusion (plus loads of whatever else is up there), and of
the planet Venus is simply chuck full of clean and renewable energy
everywhere you'd care to look, plus likely offering those amounts of
easily accessible minerals and raw elements including yellowcake worth
90% or better grade to boot.

So, in spite of the lord Mook all-or-nothing agenda, essentially I'm
still in full agreement with the Mook mindset, in that I fully
appreciate his can-do analogy, and further stipulating that no amount
of R&D investment/cost is ever too great when there's such a terrific
amount of clean energy payback.
.. - Brad Guth

" We can meet all our needs through space development "

On Jan 30, 6:26 pm, Einar <eina...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Mind you, you are suggesting a difficult and expensive development
program.

Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
No I am proposing a large number of interrelated programs with a
common vision. The development of our interplanetary frontier.
You are actually suggesting a good number of expensive and
difficult development programs.

Yes, with each opportunity structured as a separate finance company
using a project financing model.
You may have some money, but you are not a trillionaire.

There are 9.5 million millionaires in the world. Collectively they
control $40 trillion. This is largely liquid. They are contnually
looking for good returns on this money. Of this approximately 20% is
earmarked for credible high risk investments. My success with the
eight projects I am currently sponsoring, will allow me to sposor
other more risky projects going forward. I will also maintain
ownership by putting in the early stage capital, which is always good
news to a prospective investor.
I mentioned the other programs to demonstrate that much less ambitious
projects have run into development difficulties, meaning...ought to
have been blatantly obvious...

Projects fail when you run out of money before you run out of
problems. Oftimes programs are underfunded and get an undeserved bad
reputation. That is what I find maddening about your responses. You
say X did thus and so, without any analysis or understanding. X may
very well done thus and so - but unless you know how X works and the
detailed history of X - you can't really conclude anything about it.
Projects succeed when you run out of problems before you run out of
money. Someone may say, Conestoga lost its shirt. Yet the Saturn
program in less time produced a rocket that sent men to the moon. Of
course Conestoga was limited by the capital a group of angel investors
could throw at it. Saturn spent $9 billion and in six years did
amazing things. Financial genius is as important as technical genius
in getting things done here. Humanity has enough money. I even have
the phone numbers of all the people who have most of it. I now have a
business model that lets them risk a portion of it on new
technologies.
that you program is likely to encounter
development difficulties scales large as well.

People are willing to take risks. The larger set of interconnecting
programs is broken down into a series of projects. Buying a basket of
project positions limits risk and guarantees a low level of return.
Think of an oil company. Oil companies routinely sell positions in a
wide range of projects in response to their exploration and discovery
operations. They have an over-riding vision of how they will
operate. The opportunities presented by their exploration and
discovery activity are organized and financed one at a time. So, you
don't buy BP - you buy BP Alaska pipeline company, or BP Shenzen
province company and so forth. Same here. There is an over-riding
vision of developing off-world resources. I have an R&D department,
and an opportunity development department, and we crank out projects
that on balance make money. We then tap into the 9.5 million SEC
qualified people on the planet, and ask them for up to $4 trillion in
risk capital.
Maybe you can find trillions to spend when all of what you are
proposing is added together.

Well, there is an order of battle as they say.
Clearly, the mere development of that craft will take a while.

The heavy lift launcher, with its launch facility in New Mexico, will
take 4 years and cost $6 billion. This will build a fleet of 4 of the
largest launch vehicles, - built around 28 launch elements.
There will have to be experiments,

YEs. Stennis is available for static tests. Dryden and White Sands
are available for suborbital tests.
i.e. the aerospike engine is yet to actually fly.

That is true, but the folks at P&W say that nozzles are not a
problem. They have worked with innovative nozzle designs and new
airframs (the DCX used a deeply throttable RL10 made specifically for
the program at very low cost) - so, this i smore than just hand-waving
sir. I have qualified vendors who have given me budgets time frames
and all the rest..
Now, you might pay for this if you would first use the
thing in a singular to launch satellites for some time, till the bugs
have been worked out.

The bugs as you call them will be worked out in numerical simulations
first, then in ground tests, then in suborbital flight tests. the nice
thing about a reusable vehicle, is you can build test articles and
shepherd them all the way through to production. You can also build
subscale test articles. Another reason I like P&W - they have the
RL10 - Reduce the 1,400 metric tons of thrust on each of the
boosters of the full scale launcher to a 45,000 pounds of thrust on a
subscale model - and you get a dandy little 7.8 metric ton launcher as
part of the deal. In the various configurations you can do 2 ton 4
ton and 8 ton to LEO. At current costs per kg - these will start
earning their keep well before the larger program is done.
Then the development curve could be something similar to what say
Kistler is trying to achieve,

Kistler doesn't have the right financial structure to raise the funds
needed on the scale needed.
first trying to establish a reusable
launch veicle and later they intend to expand on it.

This is a recipie for death - since any failure turns off the money
supply. It would be like an oil company leasing land and raising
money one exploration well at a time. No, failure on one well would
kill the program. You raise ALL the money you are likely to need to
achieve your longer range goal. It doesn't matter how much that is -
failure to achieve this first step - means the program is verylikely
to fail. Those who cannot see how to raise the billions needed -
virtually gurantee failure in this way, and make it more difficult for
those who come after.
Space X intents the same.

They are letting their inability to raise the needed capital drive
their strategic growth. Can you imagine an oil company doing that?
They wouldn't last a quarter - they'd go belly up at the first hiccup
in production. Same here.
Now, that can lead to a family of launch veicles,

If EVERYTHING goes perfectly right - maybe. You are AND ing together
the pieces not OR ing togethr the pieces so you are guaranteeing
failure rather than success.
eventually the large powerful veicle

Very unlikely very unlikely - unless you have all the money you need
and then some at the outset.
can be realized in managable steps.

Obviously you will not spend your money all at once. You are
confusing the finance piece with operations piece and putting a lot of
pressure on your engineers because your finance people don't know how
to raise all the money needed.
Then as you suggest multibles of that can be used.

You will only attract qualified vendors who are working for your
program, not against it, if you have a purse that has ALL the money
for a program. It gives you very powerful control of your vendors to
do that. Going hat in hand to vendors and employees gives control to
them, undermines the likelihood of success and virtually guarantees
failure. Absolutely, logistically operationally you SPEND money
carefully prudently step by step developing thing.

Financially, you accumulate a warchest BEFORE the first dollar is
spent to carry you through the war. See?
This is a development process of something on the order of 20 - 30
years for the veicle alone.

Michoud already exists. It already produces ETs. P&W already
exists. It already produces RS-68s. Dryden already exists. White
Sands already exists. Stennis already exists. If I have $9 billion
in escrow to develop a launcher capability - why the hell would it
take 30 years to build the vehicle I described using thesee assets? It
won't It will take 3 years and $6 billion That fleet will then
operate in conjunction with a number of disparate programs that use
the launcher fleet and keep it busy earning profits for the finance
company that organized the funding. Those that invested in one project
will likely invest in others - spread their risk among many. 500 tons
ot LEO means we can contemplate a hotel on the moon, property
development on Mars and the moon along the lines of the property
development companies that developed the New World, a large heavy
comsat constellation,, power satellites, asteroidal survey and
development...

Each will be a separate opportunity, and each will make use of the
capacity developed -after its developed- and each will be fully funded
at the outset without having to put its hand out again once financing
has been raised the first time.
.
Two of the eight projects I am sponsoring create $40 billion in value
for me. By risking a portion of that I gain sufficient credibility to
leverage what I invest to cover these programs. Like I said, my game
plan for terrestrial solar has its own array of special projects going
forward. So, space development is by no means the central piece of
what I'm doing. Yet, $1 billion - invested into a finance company, to
organize it to develop off-world resources - is an unprecedented
amount of money to spend on such things privately. This company will
do many things. One will be to spin off projects for financing among
the 9.5 million millionaires in the world.

Reseearch Develolpment and Planning- this is internally funded
and spins off specific plans for the rest. Asset acquisition - buy
undervalued aerospace assets and reorganize them to efficiently
support ongoing operations. - this is internally funded and supplies
talent for the projects. These guys get the job done.

Strategic alliances - partner with those you cannot buy - this is
internally funded and supplies resources and talent for the projects.
These work as contractors for the guys just mentioned with an
opportunity to share in profits.

Launcher development - reusable heavy lift multi-stage launcher
project - $6 billion - 3 years - $600 million seed capital - $5.4
billion fund raise as work progresses.

Payload development - mass produce payloads for satellite
constellations project- $10 billion - 3 years $1 billion seed capital
- $9.billion fund raise - organizes parent assets to mass produce
large numbers of spacecraft at low cost per kg..

Satellite constellation - get aprovals and licenses for global
communications system - make use of assets when available. $200
million invested from parent - to attain need approvals in 3 years.
Once llicensing, auncher and payload programs are successful, a $40
billion fund raise is carried out with $4 billion coming from the
parent company. Constellation will be deployed in 2 years. Parent
has option to buy back positions within 2 years for $80 billion.

Communications marketing company - this project pre-purchases the
entire capacity of the satellite constellation (when available) and
accumulates media talent to market a wide range of services throughout
the world. - turn around once constellation is operational - 24
months. - that is 7 years from today. This is fully funded by the
parent company - no fund raise needed.

Power Satellite project - internally funded and wholy owned.-
transfer all IP from previous work, initial $50 billion internally
financed through borrowings against other assets owned by company -
exercises launch and payload and infrastructure assets over an 8 year
period to develop core technology for power satellites that make use
of owner's terrestrial solar installations as receiver sites.

Power Satellite Ground Station Financings - each power station on
Earth is financed as an oil field might bre financed, to raise between
$100 million and $10 billion - to develop reciever sites for the laser
energy beamed from space - through conventional project financing. In
the end, thousands of projects, totalling TRILLIONS of dollars will
capture the lion's share of the emerging global alternative energy
market. Every 20,000 MW of ground stations developed results in
another orbiting power sat purchase. The nice thing about this, is
that by creating an in-house success for $50 billion - I can presell
the output of all the ones I am contracted to build - to pay for ALL
the satellites I sell - even before I build the first one.

Sort of how HenryFord got the money to buyout his investors. By
preselling cars he didn't have (except 1 he took on a road show) to
dealers that didn't exist (but planned to) - he collected deposits and
notes then deposited the deposits in a bank and convinced a bank to
honor the notes (and mortgaging his factory) from his dealer network.
Same here. - I build a few in-house projects around power satellites
and have one satellite orbiting. I have a history of success with the
launcher and the comsat - and the terrestrial stations. I got back to
the terrestrial stations and sell the EXCESS OUTPUT that they will
have when illuminated by laser energy - for a deposit and a note. I
have a whole team of sales folks. I take all the deposits and all the
notes back to an investment bank - and they organize a consortium -
and sell bonds to their high net work individuals. In this way
TRILLIONS of dollars may be organized in a relatively short time. I
will have basically captured all the high risk capital out there on
planet Earth and have it available to build power satellites using all
the space launch capacity on planet Earth which I've already purchased
or partnered with l. 10% of this allows me to use the assets already
described to explore other opportunities. The pay off comes when I
build the 2,000 power satellites and deliver the energy.promised - and
the 9.5 million millionaires with $40 trillion turn into 30 milliion
millionaires with $400 trillion - I'm then ready to spin out the next
range of projects - building on the success of the earlier projects -
and I maintain high standing among the growing number of millionaires
on planet Earth - as I actualy deliver increasing amounts of
information, energy and raw materials to a growing world economy.



Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
We can meet all our needs through space development.

Here is the program I propose;

(1) Develop a stretched External Tank massing 1,000 metric tons,
with a 120 metric ton structural fraction
propelled by an annular aerospike nozzle
using 3 RS-68 pumpsets
generating 1,400 metric tons of thrust at lift off
with a specific impulse of 430 seconds

(2) Build 30 of these elements and operate them up to 7 at a time
to launch 535 metric tons into Earth orbit every 15 days

(3) Build 660 satellites, each 10 to 20 tons mass, and launch them
over an 18 month period to create a global wireless
communications
capability that generates $83 billion per year in revenue

(4) Adapt the satellite launcher to launch;
manned payloads, space tourism, lunar hotel
large mars direct type vehicles for
mars development and exploration
lunar development and exploration
power satellites

(5) use power satellites to create abundant hydrogen fuel to
displace
crude oil coal and natural gas and support expanded industry
this increases revenue stream from space to over $4 trillion
per year.

(6) develop telepresence and telerobotics capabilities as well as
a host of related business, financial and banking services
over
the wireless broadband created in step 3.

(7) use power satellite capacity to create a beam powered
propulsion
unit. Adapt the reusable flight elements with improved
engine,
increase launch rate and capacity.

(8) adapt power satellites to operate close to solar surface and
beam
energy at far higher levels to any point of use in the solar
system

(9) use improved beam handling to beam energy directly to users
displacing in most instances the use of hydrogen/oxygen

(10) capture asteroids using improved propulsion systems,
develop those asteroids into industrial feestocks using
telerobotic labor and solar power - disperse the finished
goods and products to users by GPS guided aeroshells
launched from the space facility by rail gun, and landed
by MEMS based braking rockets

(11) build large pressure vessels at low cost on Earth orbit to
create farms and industrial forests at less cost and
greater
yields than possible on Earth. Add food and fiber to the
mix of low cost products freely available across Earth at
low market rates.

(12) MEMs based propulsive skins, powered by high intensity
infrared lasers, available at low cost make reliable,
safe
travel to orbit and anywhere on Earth common reality
for everyone. This combined with low cost pressure
vessels equipped with their own biosphere - cause the
first mass exodus off world.

This can all be achieved within the next 50 years.

As an example of what might be possible lets look at the food
situation;

Here is what the USDA says the Average American eats per capita;

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/spreadsheets/foodloss/servings.xls#Totals!a1

6.5 ounces of meat eggs and nuts a day
1.8 cups Dairy
0.7 cups Fruit
7.5 cups vegetables
5.3 ounces Flour, cereal
71.6 grams added fats
25.1 teaspoons added sugar

Converting each ounce to 28.35 grams, and
1 cup to 8 ounces.
1 teaspoon of sugar to 4.2 grams

184.3 grams meat/eggs/nuts
408.3 grams dairy
158.8 grams fruit
1,701.0 grams vegetables
150.3 grams flour, cereals
105.5 grams
2,708.2 grams per day total

Assuming a 20% structural/propellant fraction this means that a daily
supply of food could be delivered from orbit for every person

2.8 kg - food
0.6 kg - structure/propellant

This would be contained in a 3 liter volume. Reducing this to '3-
squares a day' we have a module with a total volume of 1 liter per
meal, containing up to 1 kg, with a 50 gram shell, 20 grams of MEMs
engines and active componetns (1000:1 thrust to weight on these tiny
tiny engines) and 30 grams of propellant for braking from high
subsonic speeds - soft landing the payload precisely - and another 100
grams for spares/cooking in place. The thermal protection system
permits combined with pressure sealed operation allows the 1 liter
container to double as a cooking element.

With 7 billion people - we have 21 billion continers dispatched per
day from orbit. in response to a satellite telephone call. From
several sun synch polar orbits, a demand for food can be resolved in 5
minutes or less - following a satellite phone call, which also
provides precise GPS coordinates for delivery. It takes about 1 km/
sec delta vee from 700 km sun synch orbit to deorbit a payload quickly
and reliably. This is imparted by solar powered rail gun.

In large quantities - with highly automated production and low labor
rates - the materials -whether organic or technical - may cost as
little as $0.40 per kg to produce and delivery. So meals cost as
little as $0.48 each without subsidy. Of course people pay far more
than that for meals in most areas. The US spends something like $1.5
trillion per year on food - about 1/3 of what the entire planet
spends. $4.5 trillion per year spent on food translates to $0.59 per
meal.and $843 billion per year profit from food sales.

It takes about 1/2 acre of farmland to support the average American
consumer. Enclosed agriculture such as that provided by greenhouse
cultivation increases yeilds 5x. Large pressure vessels placed on
orbit can control all factors including the weather and gravityas well
as atmospheric composition - to increase yields beyond this level.
So, 10 people per acre translates to 2,469 per square kilometer of
pressure vessel growth area. Vertical farming methods with lighting
control, increases it beyond that by having vertical growth areas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroponics
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Spacecolony1.jpg
http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/Table_of_Contents1.html

An O'Neill style pressure vessel was surounded by dozens of
agricultural modules. A design for a small agricultural unit that is
1 km in diameter and 0.75 km tall, has a pseudo gravity area of 2.35
sq km. Installed in the center of each rotating cylinder is a conical
thin film mirror that illuminates the gravity area. The cylinder wall
area is related to the cone base area.

The area illuminated is divided into 3 zones around the cylinder wall
- the plants are grown aeroponically - and each plant grouping is
illuminated according to a cosine curve - which peaks at 73% space
levels of illumination (that balance is used to power solar panels on
board) which is distributed as a 3 phase half wave system. Total
power stays the same, even while the power on each phase rises from
zero to full illumination over 6 hours and falls to zero 6 hours after
- and is dark 12 hours. - with unused light being used to charge up
energy systems on board the station.

Each station provides food for 10,000 people. Each station is crewed
by 50 farming droids - manned by 150 telerobotic workers.

The microgravity portion at the center of the rotating cylinder -
behind the conical reflector illuminating the gravity portions at the
periphery - process the foods into meals - ready to be shot by rail
gun out of the vehicle to Earth below. 30,000 meals per day are
prepared in this way. Another 150 droids with another 450 robot
drivers maintain this service.

So, each station employs 600 people on a continuous basis, and
provides meals for 10,000.

The station houses surplus materials left over from the asteroidal
processing that created the station. This material provides the
consumable feedstock needed to supply the station as it ships 36 tons
of product per day to Earth. A 150 meter diameter sphere contains
mostly water, and some smaller amounts of other materials needed to
supply the station with these consumables.and spares for a period of
134 years. As stated this is mostly water, but also includes 1.47
billion 1 liter meal conainers - fabricated along with the station.

There are 6.7 billion people on Earth at present. So, at 10,000 per
station, this implies a total number of stations 670,000 to supply all
the food needs of humanity with 40 million workers.

http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/4appendE.html

1000 small bodies each approximately 2 km in diameter, each massing
approximately 3 billion metric tons - gathered from the asteroid belt
over a 10 year period brought into a sun synchronous polar orbit -
above the terminator for Earth - staying in constant sunlight - flying
at an altitude of 1,000 km altitude and separated by 26 km - form
the basis of the system propose here. Using vacuum forming described
in the URL above large pressure vessels are formed - 676 per captured
fragment.forming an area of stations facing the sun with with 26 by 26
stations per asteroidal fragment. At a rate of 1 ag station every 3
days from each asteroid, fragment, the entire ring can be completed in
5.55 years. A 10 to 15 year program, including the the time it takes
to capture the asteroids, could build a ring like this for use on
Earth.

A production setup per asteroidal fragment, produces all components on
orbit - with a productive crew of 10,000 droids and 35,000 drivers per
asteroidal fragment. That's 35 million workers.for the whole ring.

Careful control of production timing and return of asteroids would
provide cointnous employment for up to 50 million people, especially
if post ag operations were added to the mix after the 15 year period.

In the end a ring, similar to the rings of saturn, flies above the
terminator of Earth 1,000 km above the surface, that is 26 km wide,
and houses enough farm area - and other equipment, to provide custom
made meals within minutes to anyone anywhere at any time on Earth
without using any materials on Earth.

21 billion one liter containers massing 70 grams are deposited per day
on Earth's surface, but a small processing operation on Earth would
take care of this. .

With sufficient raw material to supply the 21,000 metric tons per day
for 134 years - the system can be rresupplied by capturing a 10
million ton 200 meter diameter asteroid every year.

A similar analysis can be done to determine the size and scope of
interplanetary supply chains for wood, building products, metals, or
anything used by people of Earth.

Supply chains to support habitation on orbit on a large scale, as well
as habitation and transport throughout the solar system in large space
homes - are also possible.

This is doable today with technology immediately avaialble today.
.

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