Re: forests on orbit

So, the new and improved DNA of William Mook is going to live for how
many hundreds of thousand years?

At the rate we're going, you think we've actually got another decade
or possibly a century before WWIII or something worse nails our butts
(like a little something of a teratonne NEO diverted by God)?
- Brad Guth


Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Feb 3, 1:27�pm, BradGuth <bradg...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Feb 3, 9:21 am, Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

1000 asteroidal fragments feed 1,000 industrial centers - each with 4
assembly lines - to produce 2.5 million in 5 years - and 7.5 million
added (10 million total) in 9 years - by adding an additional 1000
fragments with 4 assembly lines each.

Black holes represent unlimited energy. �So, why don't you go out
there and bring one of those BHs back towards Earth, as it could be
efficiently parked within the Moon's L1, or utilized as a rather nifty
solar shade if it were parked within the halo orbit of Earth L1.

How long and of how much of our hard earned loot would that take, and
of what could possibly go wrong?
. - Brad Guth

Solar synfuels made in quantities large enough to supply 1/2% of
humanity's needs for energy - are what I'm spending $12 billions today
to realize in 3 years. Once that is available I'll see what I feel
like doing - I will retain $80 billion in value from these projects -
my investors will have made $240 billion.

However, less than twenty billion of my total will acquire for me a
gasoline retailer in the US and more carbon reserves and the machinery
to convert that carbon to gasoline - yeilding hundreds of billions of
dollars in about two years after that.

Buying companies and combining them with new technology is the
quickest way to realize value with a new technology. Delivering on
that promise sets the stage for the next step.

So, five years out I'm interested in buying aerospace assets and
organizing a small fleet of heavy lift launchers, while at the same
time, building out all the lands I now have options on. Within 7
years - 12 years from today - 2020 AD- I expect to dominate energy
production on Earth, and be in a position to begin augmenting synfuel
and hydrogen production, with massive quantities of low cost hydrogen,
and some direct beaming of energy to receivers owned by utilities -
with only a dozen power sats on GEO and 20,000 sq km of solar
collectors.

I now develop a laser propelled rocket around the heavy lift launcher
elements - increasing fleet size from 4 launchers of 7 elements each
lifting 535 tons each - to 28 1 element launchers lifting 535 tons
each -
.
This gets my launch rate up from 12 satellites per year - to 200
satellites per year -and completes my control over the world's energy
markets in 5 years (2025AD)

My powersat launch rate drops from 200 per year to 80 per year and a
spare capacity of 120 launches is available to do other things.

This includes, experimenting with solar orbiting power satellites -
that fly 3.5 million km above the solar surface and produce powerful
laser beams - that are beamed to Earth and other places in the solar
system - and things like adapting the free electron laser systems to
produce proton beams - that are collided to produce antimatter on an
industrial scale. Thus, orbiting the sun, are powerful satellites
that can supply human industry with low cost photons and low cost
antiprotons. - this by 2035 AD

So, to recap;

From sunlight;

synfuel (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, natural gas, propane,
butane)
protons (hydrogen)
photons (lasers)
anti-protons (anti-hydrogen, anti-matter)

Platform

terrestrial solar 180 MW/km2 - $0.07 per Wp
GEO solar 562 MW/km2 - $0.02 per Wp
solar solar 1,000,000 MW/km2 - $0.00001 per Wp

The cost per watt drops at 4% per year throughout - in barrel of oil
equivalent (boe) - which leads to an acceleration of the economy by 8%
per year. The net effect is to sell more energy...

year boe energy bill GP/cap
2015 $87/bbl $4.0 trillion $10,000
2020 $71/bbl $4.9 trillion $14,700
2025 $58/bbl $5.9 trillion $21,600
2030 $47/bbl $7.2 trillion $31,800
2035 $39/bbl $8.8 trillion $46,600

We will have achieved US per capita rates world wide by 2035. The US
will of course grow as well, but at a slower pace around 4% in real
terms - paying off its promises it has made over the past 20 years -
strengthening its currency and providing for the baby boomers and
their children.

Per capita GDP for US citizens will rise from around $45,000 today to
$98,000 in real terms by 2035 under this program.

Beyond this point there will be other shortages the limit the growth
of energy use. These are shortages in food, strategic materials,
fiber, and wood.

Using the surplus launch capacity outlined above, and making use of
the long distance power beaming, as well as the possible production of
anti-matter at low cost - payloads will be built to launch 1,000 crews
to Ceres and other rich asteroids over a 3 year period - starting in
2027. By 2035 the first quantity of asteroidal mined materials will
return to Earth, and by 2040 - the bulk of the food and fiber will be
produced in space along with nearly all strategic materials. By 2045
- nearly all wood products will be produced in space. By 2050 space
homes will be available in quantity to large numbers of people.

Laser powered and anti-matter powered propulsion systems will move
space colony sized space homes throughout the solar system.
Industrial satellite rings will be established around the moon and
mars and other planetary bodies of interest. Telerobotics of the
2010s - will be upgraded with directed autonomous robotics by 2040 -
and adapted to space production and maintenance and operations of
complex space systems - make the space home and the personal spaceship
feasible and safe for humanity.

By 2080 - global average and US average incomes have equalized, at
about $1 million per person per year - at that time, US debt has long
been eliminated and US promises have been kept, and the US economy
starts to match global increases of 8% per annum -

Expansion of sun orbiting solar power satellite networks increase the
lift capacity of humanity to allow interstellar probes to be
dispatched by 2040 - to be followed by interstellar expeditions by
2055 - These expeditions will consist of private explorers using their
own assets, in return for mineral and other rights in the target star
systems. By 2100 - a star orbiting power network, and asteroidal
mining operations will be in place around a handful of the nearest
stars - and a two way laser light sail system of interstellar commerce
will have been established. Transit speeds will routinely approach
1/4 to 1/3 light speed. Thus it will take 12 to 16 years to travel to
nearby stars.

Star colonies will coordinate research after 2100 - using radio
telescopes - to collide large shaped masses of iron-56 - at 1/3 light
speed - these decade long experiments, colliding millions of tons of
iron-56 in interstellar space - will allow engineers and scientists to
explore the possibility of creating engineered black hole dusts.
These dusts may be used (this is highly speculative at present) to
create a new sort of technology where space-time may be directly
engineered. This has the potential to create mass to energy
converters, anti-gravity machines, gravity drives, tap zero point
energy and even time travel. Time travel is the equivalent of faster-
than-light travel and communications.

The experiments to determine if any of this is even remotely possible
won't be completed until well into 2150 - however, by 2200 we may be
surprised by what we can do in the universe. With unlimited power and
energy, and the ability to shape time to our liking, we will find
ourselves able to visit any where and anywhen in any number of
parallel universes (assuming Hugh Everett was right about many worlds)

In the most optimistic scenario, we will organize black hole dusts to
produce copies of themselves from zero point energy - stamping out
sophisticated machines or merely machine elements that get woven into
sophisticated machines - from the vacuum itself. This sounds
likemagic, but it should be realized that's where the big bang came
from in the first place. So, after spending a century building the
first crude black hole dust machines - we will find ourselves - if
this is possible - with low cost mass produced machines widely
available.

It will be a different age - every bit as different as terrestrial and
extra terrestrial ages we just described.

We don't have enough knowledge to make sure prediction, but we do know
enough what might be interesting experiments to perform.

One important thing to keep in mind is that the difficulties facing
humanity today, overpopulation, pollution, violence, will not be the
difficulties facing humanity in 2100.

The difficulties facing humanity in 2100 is low population densities,
low reproductive rates, biological tameness, diversification of
intelligence platform (human level computing/ cyborgs/ genetic
engineering, etc), superintelligence (communications between agents
(people) of vastly different capacities is an issue of which we are
only dimly aware - and which will be vastly important after 2040),
interstellar expansion.

In short if we do not address the problems facing us today, we will
die rather soon. If we do address the problems facing us today, we
will face extinction due to our own success.

Income levels above $20,000 per person per year - are associated with
reproductive rates below replacement levels. All nations, regardless
of culture, or history, or social norm, who have income levels above
this - import labor and populations. As humanity grows, we will reach
ZPG well before 2035 - even with successful longevity research. This
will limit human numbers.

In 1900 average age of death was 42. In 2000 average age of death was
78. A difference of 36 years in 100. Breaking it down decade by
decade, medical science and sanitation, advanced the age of death by
0.19 year per year in the 1900s and 0.75 year per year in the 2000s.
By 2010 - we can expect that medical science will extend life by more
than 1 year per year - and that most people alive at that time, will
not die due to medical issues - if medical treatments can be
afforded.

Even removing the effects of aging,and preventable causes of death
people will live only 800 years - with most likely cause of death an
auto accident. Removing automobile accidents from the list - through
automation - this may be extended to 3,300 years - with a rather large
standard deviation - with most likely cause of death being shot in
someone else's bed with their significant other..

Today 120 million people die each day - of these 90 million die due to
age related diseases, 30 million die from preventable diseases,
accidents, malnutrition, violence.

Over the next 50 years - according to my analysis - the increase in
longevity will balance the decrease in reproductive rates - and human
populations will peak and stay at around 7 billion to 8 billion people
throughout the remainder of the 21st and 22nd centuries. After 2080 -
the population density of Earth will decline precipetiously - with
most people living on Earth orbit. In the 22nd century people will
move away from Earth orbit across the solar system. By the 23rd
century there will be a slow migration out of the solar system - and
this will will create the first difficulty I mentioned -low population
densities. which lead to all the others.

Human numbers will likely decline (with the exception of AI based
intelligence) at about 1/4% per year rate in the 23rd century. This
combined with an expansion at 1/3 light speed across the cosmos -
leads to very low densities in very short times. In fact, in less
than 500 years - humans will drop in number to less than a billion,
and be spread over a sphere 330 light years across and all the star
systems contained therein..

Human population density expanding at 1/3 light speed

year population star systems density

2300 8,000 million 1 8,000 million
2400 4,846 million 2,300 2 million
2500 2,935 million 18,400 160,000
2600 1,778 million 64,000 27,800
2700 1,077 million 150,600 7,150
2800 653 million 292,800 2,230

Now getting back to your black hole question. The ability to engineer
black holes has the potential to increase human technical capacity
dramatically as I've outlinded above. Success with that technology,
perhaps assisted by super intelligent AI, would mean that humans at
the snap of a finger could navigate anywhere - and anywhen - in the
observable universe - and that would likely give them access to any
parallel when - if Hugh Everett is correct in his suppositions.

What this means is that the low densities outlined as a problem facing
humanity over the next half millenium - will drop off a cliff!!!
They'll drop to zero - in very short order. That is, increase speeds
to light speed or better - and you get time travel and rapid increase
in star systems far and away exceeding human numbers.

There are 100 billion stars in a typical galaxy and 100 billion
observable galaxies in the universe. There are only 6.6 billion
humans at present.

This may well be an answer to Fermi's paradox.

Because, its apparent that if we do not resolve the issues facing
industrial development on Earth today, we will not be space faring
tomorrow.

Less appreciated, is that if we DO resolve the issues facing
industrial development on Earth today, we will certainly be space
faring, but in less than 1/200th the diameter of the galaxy - our
densities will drop so low, there will be fewer than 1000 humans per
star system. And black holes will drop that to zero.. or nearly zero.

This may also explain (if any explanation is needed) our popularity as
a visitation site.

Less than one thousand years before this epoch - humans were rare and
spread far and wide across the plains of Earth in small self-
sufficient communities rarely interacting. In less than a thousand
years humans will be rare and spread far and wide across the cosmos in
small self sufficient communities rarely interacting. It is only this
time, this place, that humans are in the unique position we take for
granted today.


So, while I think black hole research is an interesting possibility,
it is of little practical use to us today. I hope I have spelled out
the order of battle over the coming years and what I am doing about
it.
.

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