Re: Opening the High Frontier of Space

On 26 Feb, 06:22, Fred J. McCall <fmcc...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Ian Parker <ianpark...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

:On 25 Feb, 14:49, Fred J. McCall <fmcc...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
:>
:> Let's see your business case.
:>
:
:A business case can only refer to 5 years or less in the future.
:

False.  Please provide an authoritative cite for this contention.

Weren't you the one who was pillorying others because they expressed
opinions and didn't produce a business case?

Just an A.S.S., I tell you...

--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
 only stupid."
                            -- Heinrich Heine

OK a 2STO would be built within 5 years and comes well within the
criteria. I would expect the mining of Ceres to be done by private
enterprise. All public funding to be shut off after the 5 year
deadline.

We can look at a 2STO and get a design now. A "low cost" 2STO could be
built in 5 years if it is buildable.

Let's look at Ceres. We need to know how much platinum there is and
what technology would be used to extract it. With present technology
involving humans would cost (probably) some £200 billion. This is why
we would need to devise automation. With automation the entry into the
galleries could be quite small (10cm or so tubes). I feel it would be
necessary to do an exploratiory drilling into the core. This would be
done by a nuclear powered mole, similar to the sort of moles envisaged
for Europa, but able to go though rock as well as ice.

Initially geophones should be landed on Ceres, this will give us an
idea of the structure and a mole could be designed after that. I would
reckon on a cost broadly in line with what is generally accepted as
the cost of an unmanned probe. Probably £2 billion for the initial
exploration. There would in fact be some commonality with Europa. BTW
- life produces optically active compounds. If our main objective is
to find life on Europa, I feel this might be done by measuring the
change in polarization of a laser, without the need to drill.

The other side of the equation is how long before itr is needed? We
have reached "peak oil" and so we need to think in terms of electric
vehicles. When - Well futurologists talk about the "S" curve. This
looks like an integral sign and describes the take up of a new
technology. At present installed solar power is increasing at 50% per
year. This is an approximate doubling in just under 2 years. Solar
power in fact (at the moment) gives a very similar growth figure to
Moore's law in computers. So in answer to the question "When will we
need it", the answer comes out at 15-20 years if we assume a basic
Moore growth. This may be incorrect but I feel it is the most
realistic assumption. Of course politics may influence the decisions
taken.

How much will it cost then? Tis depends on the level of automation. On
the assumption that some sort of nanotech will spot grains of platinum
and extract them, and that automation will give us the ability to use
the iron/aluminium on Ceres, if we assume that the only thing that
need by transported from Earth is chips, the total cot could be
confined to 10 billion or so.

This makes it a viable proposition. I am assuming major advances in
nanotechnology and some advances in AI. I am not assuming any dramatic
advance in rocketry. Of course thermonuclear propulsion would
deasically affect the manned/unmanned balance


- Ian Parker

.

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