Re: Retooling the Vision for Space Exploration

Collapse of the Vienna Stock Market

The Long Depression (1873-1896) affected much of the world from the
early 1870s until the mid-1890s and was contemporary with the Second
Industrial Revolution. At the time it was regarded as the Great
Depression, until the more severe Great Depression occurred in the
1930s.

The United Kingdom is often considered to have been the hardest hit by
the Long Depression, and during this period it lost much of its large
industrial lead over the economies of Continental Europe. The
Depression is usually believed to have ended by 1897. The global
economy grew at an impressive rate from that year to the start of
World War I.

The primary cause of the depression was a shortage of available money
to facilitate trade. The most immediate cause, and the date that is
often used as the start of the Depression, was the collapse of the
Vienna Stock Exchange on May 9, 1873. Others have argued the
depression was rooted in the 1870 Franco-Prussian War that hurt the
French economy and, under the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871), forced that
country to make large war reparations payments to Germany. 5milliard
(billion) francs in gold, or £200million, "financed mainly through
London" according to Clapham, p286. Germany went on to gold and the
price of silver started to fall causing considerable losses of asset
values.

The demonetization of silver by European and North American
governments in the early 1870s was certainly a contributing factor.
The Coinage Act of 1873 in America was met with great opposition by
farmers, as silver was seen as more of a monetary benefit to rural
areas than to banks in big cities. In addition, there were Americans
who advocated the continuance of government-issued fiat money (United
States Notes) to avoid deflation and promote trade. Although this was
the economic platform of Abraham Lincoln this policy was not continued
by the American government after Lincoln was assassinated, as the US
began to move towards a gold standard. Monetarists believe that the
depression was caused by shortages of gold that undermined the gold
standard, and that the 1848 California Gold Rush, 1886 Witwatersrand
Gold Rush in South Africa and the 1898-99 Klondike Gold Rush helped
alleviate such crises. Other analyses have pointed to developmental
surges (see Kondratiev wave), theorizing that the Second Industrial
Revolution was causing large shifts in the economies of many states,
imposing transition costs, which may also have played a role in
causing the depression.

* * *

The near future

* * *

The Collapse of the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Board of
Trade

The US 'war on terror' continues, and we get mired in the politics of
the Middle East, while the production of oil peaks, and the demand for
energy grows, with oil reaching over $200 per barrel while increasing
numbers of muslim people are radicalised by US involvement. The value
of US currency continues to decline, as war expenditures escalate.
The dollar is no longer the de-facto currency of international trade -
with the lead being taken by the Euro, and the Chinese Yuan.

The collapse of the New York and Chicago Stock Exchanges following the
detonation of a terror nuke in those cities on some arcane date
important to muslim terrorists. The US institutes its post-nuclear
scenarios - using its 'red currency' stockpiled in the 1950s as part
of its nuclear preparedness for the Cold War. Increased restrictions
within the US, the announcement of martial law, and abandoning nearly
all debts, cause the US to enter a period of hyperinflation.

The Chinese move quickly to fill the power vacuum left by the United
States, which causes lasting fear and anger toward China within the
United States. Despite the great economic decline within the United
States, world economic output grows four fold, with massive increases
in Chinese and Indian per capita incomes. This leads to a general
consensus that the US was a weight on global economic health and US
international credibility and legitimacy as a national power is at an
all-time low.

There are a series of restrictive policies instituted for 'national
security' and the US 'negotitates' unrestricted access to oil fields
and tar sands fields in Canada, and oil fields in Mexico. This
ultimately leads to conflict in both countries. The European Union
supports Canada against the United States, while China, India, and
Japan support Mexico against the United States.

Both groups threaten to send troops to support both nations against US
agression. The US blockades Mexican and Canadian borders. The
Chinese ignore the blockade, and their troop ships are sunk. A
Chinese nuclear sub launches a nuclear attack with strategic battle
field nukes against not only the amphibious task force that launched
the attack that sunk their troop ship, but in a step fashion of
increasing force, launches a nuclear attack against Point Loloma near
San Diego where the amphibious force was stationed. The US responds
by a limited nuclear attack against all naval shipyard operated by
China - Chengxi Donghai Guangzhou Guijiang Huangpu Hudong Jiangnan
Jiangxin Jiangzhou Qiuxin Shanghai Wenchong Wuhu Xijiang Zhonghua

With the deaths of over 85 million people.

The entire exercise took 28 minutes.

This is only half the naval capacity of China. The US was sending
China a message.

The Chinese seek to organize a negotiated settlement - and a team is
sent the Washington DC.

Within the 48 hour period following the decimation of the Chinese
Southern and Eastern Fleet, with negotiators in Washington talking
with the President - a nuclear weapon goes of in Washington DC and Los
Angeles. This is widely believed to have been the spark that caused
the annihilation that followed. The US already at the highest levels
of defense readiness, launched a full retaliatory response against all
nations that were challenging its policies over Canadian and Mexican
oil. China, Russia, France, and Britain, responded with a full
response within three hours. The US submarine fleets, launched a
second wave of retailation against Europe, Russia, China again, and
interestingly enough, India. Nearly the entire population of the
Earth died that day.

Populations in South America, Africa, Australia survive -
approximately 600 million people survive the destruction in these
regions. Sydney emerges as the new world banking center, South Africa
the new industrial center of the world. South America the new
agricultural center.

The survivors decide to abandon warfare as a means of national will
and support universal peace.

From these beginnings, the modern world emerges.

It is another 300 years before living standards approach pre nuclear
industrial levels.

Background radiation levels are 10x higher than today's levels, in the
'habitable' regions of Earth. Changes in ecological systems due to
intense radiation are monitored. This forms the basis of space colony
ecology in high radiation environments.





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