Re: Current prices for bulk quantities of LOX, CO2 and H2
- From: lathamr@xxxxxxxxxx (Richard D. Latham)
- Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2008 23:14:50 -0400
root@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Ian Stirling) writes:
Richard D. Latham <lathamr@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
My google-fu is apparently quite weak.
I've been unable to turn up a reputable estimate for the bulk price
(in "industrial quantities", FOB the production plant) of these
chemicals.
It occurs to me that you rocket-jockeys probably know the answer off
the top of your head, at least for LOX and LH2 :-)
I'd actually prefer the prices for these in both gaseous and liquid
form, but beggars can't be choosers.
($ = $us)
Well...
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5731/is_200403/ai_n23762749
3550 tons/day for 100 million $(us).
Let's say that the plant lasts 10 years, that's a capital cost of
$7/ton.
Assuming the similar plants producing 30000 tons/day cost about the same,
http://w3.sasol.com/annual2001/br_synthetic.htm gives sales in 2001 as
$2 billion, and total production (of liquid and gaseous fuels) of 66
million tons.
This gives 5.5 tons of synthetic fuels per ton of oxygen, and assuming
$24/barrel is the price of the petroleum products, gives about 192
dollars a ton of oil, or a thousand dollars generated per ton of oxygen.
Assuming all of the costs are in liquid oxygen, that'dd put it at $.5/kg.
Perhaps more realistically, $.1/Kg.
So - somewhere beteen $.14/Kg and $.5/Kg at the outside.
Hydrogen is made from natural gas, so a reasonable lower limit on cost
would be twice the cost per hydrogen atom of natural gas.
I'm paying $3 or so per m^3 for natural gas, so that's maybe $6/Kg.
Or as 4/16ths of that is hydrogen, $24/Kg for hydrogen.
I've since gotten lucky and stumbled across a few papers, in case
anyone else is interested.
"A Realistic Look at Hydrogen Price Projections" by F.David Doty has
some data claiming that the floor (best case) price (2004 dollars and
electricity, fully burdened for things like depreciation, etc.) for
electrolsis from H2O would be $5.40 a Kg, compressed gaseous H2.
<http://wpweb2.tepper.cmu.edu/ceic/theses/Joshuah_Stolaroff_PhD_Thesis_2006.pdf>
has an analysis ( same sort of "floor" pricing ) estimating an
optimized "suck CO2 directly out of the atmosphere" process for
perhaps as low as $130 a ton, e.g. circa $1.25 per Kg .
--
#include <disclaimer.std> /* I don't speak for IBM ... */
/* Heck, I don't even speak for myself */
/* Don't believe me ? Ask my wife :-) */
Richard D. Latham lathamr@xxxxxxxxxx
.
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