Re: Why We Haven't Been to Mars Yet

On Jul 19, 9:11 am, "Mark R. Whittington" <mwhitti...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Decades ago, while Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin were first walking
on the Moon, a panel of experts called the Space Task Group was
putting together recommendations for what America should do in space
next. One of those was a human expedition to Mars in the 1980s.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/891361/wy_we_havent_been_to_...

Eisenhower worried that excerssive government spending would ruin the
US economy. He felt anything that the public grew too overly
enthusiastic about, would be exploited by business, to cause the
public to over-spend.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/presidents/34_eisenhower/filmmore/filmscript.html

This led to his warning about the Military Industrial Complex before
departing the Presidency, and it shaped the nature of his policies
while President.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY

When operation Paperclip was carried out to retrieve Nazi rocket
scientists, they were debriefed by the military. At that time the
rocket scientists urged the development of a military led
interplanetary expedititonary force, resulting with bases on the moon
and Mars. This would form a base for future development, just as
forts in the American frontier led to frontier towns, and ultimately
great cities across the frontier.

Eisenhower, as military commander, Truman was President at that time,
immediately classified these reports - citing in his notes - the fear
that the American people would be incited to over-spend on
interplanetary development that would have no real economic payoff.
We needed to conserve our resources to maintain MAD - mutual assured
destruction - and a war footing in teh nuclear age.,

When vonBraun wanted to publicize his ideas for McCall's and Disney in
the late 50s, he had to get clearance from his handler's - which he
had been arguing for for 10 years.

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/vonn1952.htm

The first long range flight tests of the Atlas missile systems were
conducted in 1956. Under express orders from Eisenhower,the missile
was loaded with sand, and directed Westward - so that vonBraun would
'accidentally' launch an orbital mission - that would then 'leak' to
the Press.

When the Russians orbited Sputnik in 1957 he feared that it was part
of a propaganda campaign to incite American enthusiasm and cause
American's to lose focus on what was important which was maintaining
strong nuclear deterrance. Also, by putting our technology into a
unclassified civilian program, he feared the Soviets were drawing us
into a weaker position where our missile secrets would be penetrated
as easily as the Rosenbergs penetrated our nuclear secrets.

For this reason, he opposed Congress as much as he could, in
developing NASA - and when that failed, he organized NASA in a way
that made it impossible for the agency to chart a long term strategic
growth plan. It would always remain a political football - and in
time he felt - American's would tire of the pointless expenditure, and
after a series of failures, and malfeasance such lackof direction was
bound to cause, Americans would pull the pluig.

The GAO since the 1970s has been advising government at all levels to
abandon NASAs manned space program.

Kennedy, used the popular conception of a missile gap to get elected.
This despite the fact that America was indeed ahead in missile
technology. It was merely Eisenhower's reluctance to demonstrate our
technology publicly that caused this perception.

Nevertheless, Kennedy prevailed, and felt that if we countered in 1961
with the first man in space - after Russia's first satellite in space
- the space race would be over fairly quickly - with the US
demonstrating dominance.

Before Al Shephard could take his sub-orbital flight, the Russians
orbited just days ahead - Yuri Gagarin - which made Shephard's sub-
orbital flight look like the USA was behind the Russian's not ahead.

Military planners and intelligence types felt that this was a key
issue - this in their minds PROVED - that the Russian's were
attempting to draw the Americans into a costly and unproductive space
race - as a means to slow our development in missile technology, and
through leaks that would appear in a public program - accelerate their
own missile programs.

Kennedy, who came to office on the promise of doing something to put
America ahead - was embarassed - and wanted to make good on his
promises. He had great suspicion of the military - following the
failed Bay of Pigs invasion. The invasion of Cuba was being planned
under Eisenhower, and it was something that Kennedy was convinced at
the time not only needed to be done, but would be done cleanly and
quickly - and we would be greeted as liberators. (sound familiar?)
When the invasion was carried out - none of the profound assurances of
the military or intelligence agencies were found to be true. Kennedy
called Truman to the White House for a confab. They concluded that
the CIA and Military were pro-republican - and were convinced that the
Democrats were more closely allied with Communists than with
Mainstream America - and so, they would ALWAYS propose programs that
would make the Democrats look foolish.

So, this suggests why Kennedy didn't really believe his intelligence
and military advisors following the Bay of Pigs. He dismissed the
analysis of his military and intelligence advisors, and the advise of
Eisenhower - after that - on this subject and charted his own course.

Kennedy saw that modern rocket technology, computer technology and
atomic technology, put at our disposal at the end of World War 2 -
interplanetary space. We could explore and expand our presence beyond
Earth in the middle of the 20th century, as easily as Europeans could
sail beyond Europe - during the Great Age of Exploration. Those
people who dominated this new age, would chart the course of the
future of humanity for millenia to come! So, Kennedy put our nation
on the course to dominate this future. He signed orders that allowed
nuclear technology to be declassified and used for the development of
large nuclear rockets - needed for interplanetary travel, and he
ordered the construction of large launch vehicles - and the
development of manned space systems - not just capsules - using
adaptations of submarine technology. He then galvanized the nation by
publicly setting a goal everyone could understand. Landing a man on
the moon by the time the 1960s ended, and returning him safely to
Earth - to organize and orient the development of all this
technology. But the moon wasn't the goal, being first in teh vast
new ocean of space - to go beyond the moon the planets beyond - not
just mars - was but the first step on a ladder that had no end -
because this frontier had a pay off - one we didn't know yet - but one
that would develop and put us well ahead of anyone who lagged behind.
Why did he believe this? Because in part his military and
intelligence advisors - had told him just the opposite.

NASA's budget in

1958 was $89 million.
1959 was $145 million
1960 was $401 million
1961 was $744 million

It was nearly doubling EVERY year. Where would it stop? Pessimists
felt that it would stop at about 1/4 to 1/3 the military budget of the
USA. Optimists - who felt Space dominance was as important as
military dominance - that it would be equal to the military budget.
These bdgets are hundreds of billions of dollars per year at this
time.

1962 was $1,257 million
1963 was $2,552 million

Not counted is what American business might spend on developing space
resources and space businesses. Detractors of this whole enterprise,
felt that any money spent in space would better be spent developing
resources on Earth. Space was a vast wilderness, and Earth was
not.

Kennedy was assasinated in November 1963. Lyndon Johnson took over
as President. The day Kennedy was displayed at the Capitol building's
rotunda, and buried, that afternoon LBJ sat down with Robert McNamara,
and McGeorge Bundy, and reversed two decisions that the slain
President had made just days earlier;

1) cut back post Apollo developments like nuclear propulsion
systems and basing technology dvelopment;

2) allocate more funds and resources to helping the French in
Vietnam (another little task Eisenhower had left Kennedy upon his
departure)

LBJ would not shitcan the Apollo program. He felt that it was
important to carry out Kennedy's goal - of landing a man on the moon -
but Kennedy's vision of a free people endeavouring to dominate and
develop an unknown frontier - was changed to a man on the moon
program.

So, LBJs cuts slowed the rate of increase of the cost of NASA over
this time - to around $5 billion per year - the doubling had ended.
After all the elements to attain a moon landing were in place, budgets
were radically cut - and foever after - NASA's budget has never
exceeded 1% - and despite the National Academy and others calling for
the creation of a strategic planning board to be formed for NASA -
NASA has remained firmly under the control of the Vice President -
assuring that no long term strategy is EVER evolved for the agency.
Meanwhile, every embarassment the agency gets involved with - is
exploited by the GAO and others as a rationale to end the agency
forever as a huge waste of government resources.

Nuclear propulsion and large space habitats cut

1964 $4.171 billion
1965 $5.093 33.514 10.267
1966 $5.933 32.106 10.706
1967 $5.426 29.696 10.231

Moon landing assured.- Apollo cut

1968 $4.724 billion
1969 $4.253 billion
1970 $3.755 billion
1971 $3.381 billion

Flights to the moon ended under Nixon.

Nixon asked for a post-apollo plan - even while he ***-canned the
existing post-apollo plan that moved us further into the
interplanetary frontier. He did this as he sidelined Werner vonBraun
- and marginlized his efforts.

http://www.astronautix.com/astros/vonbraun.htm

We didn't go to Mars and do the other things needed to dominate our
interplanetary frontier because there was a decision made at the
highest levels to focus attention on Earth - for a variety of poor
reasons.

What about the Russians? Well, by 1963 we had fpenetrated the
Russian space agency, and figured out who their leaders were, and they
had a series of misadventures and bad luck after that. We cannot
know if this is the result of any US led effort, or just bad luck.
This is the nature of secret programs. The only thing we can know for
certain is that before November 1963 - the Russians were beating our
asses regularly in space - and Kennedy's approach was to treat them as
competitors on a playing field - fighitng fair. After November 1963
- the Russian leadership had dififculties, people died, and things
just generally went to hell.

So, I think this answers your question.

What should we do next in space?

Well, first we must understand the basics.

OIur relationship to the cosmos is fixed by delta vee. The Earth's
surface bears a realtively fixed delta vee between it and places
beyond Earth. So, its rather simple to figure out just how 'far' we
need to go.

Furthermore, the rate at which material is transported from any point
to any other is given by momentum.

So, the cost of imparting momentum, determines the rate of material
flow between the Earth's surface and the rest of the cosmos - and that
cost determines the value of that point in the cosmos to us on Earth.

Another thing, is that since space technology transcends the Earth's
surface, ALL people of Earth obtain the benefit of space development.
This means the new technology creates a series of global technologies
with a set of global paradigms, which unite humanity, and make the
nation-state concept obsolte.

Consider the developments prior to the cutback after 1963

1) small suborbital paylods - this led directly to the developmentof
nuclear tipped ICBMs - wow - this meant the entire Earth was now a
battle field for a nuclear war. This is the end point in the
development of warfare. It makes warfare impossible. Why? Because
teh generals and leadership that might benefit from war, would never
order an action that might result in their death. This is the great
secret that people refuse to see. The elusive obvious - that once you
see it cannot be avoided. Global thermonuclear war would indeed be a
huge and ghastly destruction of talent and resources - but that's not
why the leadership fears it. The leadership fears it because THEY are
the primary targets - and there is no defense - well not before Raging
Raygun Reagan - proposed SDI (after which he was shot!)

In the fall of 1979, at Reagan's request, Lieutenant General Daniel O.
Graham conceived a concept he called the High Frontier, an idea of
strategic defense using ground- and space-based weapons theoretically
possible because of emerging technologies. In the spring of 1981 an
attempt was made on Reagan's life.

In any case this is the first global paradigm imposed by space
technology.

2) moderate orbiting payloads - this makes possible communications
satellites, navigation satellites, weather satellites, and spy
satellites. This gives rise to a global information environment - that
ties together the world in ways that are impossible without such
satellites. Creating a second global paradigm.

3) large cislunar payloads - this makes possible man in space - and
flights to the moon. In December 1968 the first photos of the Earth
from the vicinity of the moon were taken. These have since come to be
known as 'blue marble' shots

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blue_Marble

These photos of Earth were widely spread - and they released a
revolutionary idea for the time - that the Earth was a single place
without boundaries without borders. It is not surprising that the
first Earth Day of note occured in - a few months after the blue
marble was transmitted around the world.

It wasn't surprising that the blue marble emblazoned the Earth Day
flag

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Day

Many feel that the failure of Apollo 13 and the possibliity of losing
a crew on a lunar flight - caused the premature end of lunar
flights. I believe just a strong as argument can be made that the
ideas and ideals engendered by lunar flight - was something that was
totally unexpected - and rather than an accident causing an
embarassment - as being the primary motivation of cutting lunar
flights short - I think it just as reasonable to suspect that a Jesus
like figure emerging from one of these lunar heroes - with a deeply
meaningful insight into the human condition - spreading around the
world like the blue marble - was just as valid a reason for those who
worried about our position among nations.

Even so, half of all lunar explorers were treated for psychological
episodes following their trips. A quarter of all lunar explorers
felt these unwanted ideas were of the nature of religious insights -
and entered religious orders - and one - Edgar Mitchell - even created
his own church like movement - the Noetic Institute.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Noetic_Sciences

Which has been singularly ignored by the mainstream press.

Obviously, human travel in space - well above the altitude where space
travel is seen as more than high altitude flight - has the power to
transform human conciousness - just as meditators in the Himilayas
have had their conciousness transformed. We have spent half a century
avoiding this issue and marginalizing it - but I think it is likely
one of the most important things we can be doing.

Our world is falling apart in part because we lack the spiritual and
emotional insights to bring it together. We also fear anyone who
claims to have such insights. So, we are lost, making a world who's
future will look very much like Beruit - if we're lucky - or a nuclear
blasted desert - if we're not.

This sort of observation has prompted deep thinkers on this subject to
call the unification of science and religion the hero task of our age.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Campbell

Clearly, our brief experience on the moon indicates that if we were to
follow our hearts, rather than our fears, we would likely already have
the answers that we seek most deeply in our hearts - and our world
would have been far richer and safer and saner today as a consequence.

Consider that the war on Terror we are fighting is propagated against
those who feel they have a spiritual answer to their lives - while we
remain silent on that subject. Had we moved agressively in the mid
60s to develop the planets of interplanetary space- and recieved with
joy and intrigue and fascination the variety of transcendant
experiences that would likely have come from a large population of
people crossing this frontier and living in it - much the way we
received the artwork of Remington from the old West or the ethic of
the cowboy - we likely would have had a generation of young people -
throughout the world - who would have seen the world as their home -
not any nation group or religion.

So, this is the big thing space travel could do immediately to help us
out.

To that end, I have proposed since the fall of the Soviet Union -
creating an enhanced nonproliferation treaty where ALL nuclear
materials are brought under international control, and converted to
non-threatening nuclear impulse units - and that the US lead a
consortium of nations to build a small fleet of interplanetary
cruisers based on nuclear pulse technology

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_pulse_propulsion

To do a manned grand tour - and 'burn off' the tons of nuclear
materials we have far from our biosphere - and do so in such a way
that unites all of humanity behind the effort - and leads to the sorts
of insights that we need right now.

So, I envision a half dozen interplanetary cruisers - each capable of
carrying 20,000 tons of payload - with crews of 3,000 to 5,000 men and
women - drawn from every nation on Earth - so we're talking 30,000
people - going on a 8 year journy across the solar system -
establishing cities on the moon and mars, and outposts throughout the
solar system - would not only rid us o floose nukes and end forever
the threat of being vaporized in your home - but also a handful of
insightful people will have experiences - and create poetry, plays,
songs, photos, paintings, sculture, religious tracts, you name it-
that we all will find meaningful and wil help organize us toward amore
viable future.

Beyond this epoch, we would build a city on the moon, and a heavy lift
reusable chemical booster to get to Earth orbit - and a nuclear
thermal upper stage, refueled on the moon - and the fleet of nuclear
pulse spacecraft - to span interplanetary space.

This all constructed during the 8 year 'grand tour' of the solar
system.

The moon would house a nuclear research center. Very large particle
accelerators can be built on the moon - in the vacuum of the surface.
Also, all the unspent nuclear materials would be placed there - and
the only major rresearch reactors would be operated by humanity there
- under close international supervision.

A small retinue of nuclear pulse powered missiles would provide a
counter-force to anyone who developed or sought to devvelop nuclear
weapons anywhere.

We would then continue the development of ever more capable rocket and
space technologies - which would include;

4) .very large interplanetary payloads - asteroid deflection,
asteroid capture, power satellites, factory satellites, space farms,
space forests, space homes

There are 100,000s small bodies in the solar system - nearly all of
them can be moved around the solar system with nuclear pulse
technology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_deflection

Nuclear pulse ships are used to survey these bodies,and the richest of
these are directed to enter Earth orbit - dangerous bodies are
deflected away from impact. Teleoperated factories - solar powered

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telerobotics

are mated with these captured asteroids - and people on Earth work the
asteroids into products, that are then exported by GPS guided re-entry
vehicles to deliver products directly to users on Earth. Products are
also available in space - expanding the space based capacity. This
combined with power satellites

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_satellite

end all material shortages on Earth - and make jobs, food, goods and
services broadly available to all people - all without polluting the
Earth. All mines, farms, factories, refineries, smelting plants and
so forth - are eventually displaced with orbital systems - and the
world becomes one vast residential park.

As technology develops, the same speed arc is traversed, but at far
lower cost. Using MEMs based rocket technology propulsive skins that
are extremely safe reliable and quiet - are developed to provide
suborbital package delivery world wide, ballistic personal transport,
and widespread access to Earth orbit.

http://www.me.berkeley.edu/mrcl/rockets.html

Factories on orbit, build larger and lower cost pressure vessels to
support farming forestry and eventually residential sites - on orbit.
Phase 1 diaspora occurs - where most people leave Earth's surface to
inhabit their own privately owned space colony - on orbit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_colonization

Meanwhile, advances in nuclear rocket propulsion - and laser
propulsion - make widespread use of very large rockets possible for
moving space colonies throughout interplanetary space - tended by
smaller spacecraft for landing and taking off from planetary surfaces
- turning humanity into a space faring species.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_core_reactor_rocket
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_propulsion

Adding second generation solar power satellites that operate inside
the orbit of Mercury - and beam thousands of terawatts of energy by
laser beam beyond a thousand astronomical units, and use the gravity
of the sun itself to collimate very powerul beams dozens of lightyears
- the mobile space homes - become interstellar multi-generation
starships - by adding a laser light sail. Building a ring of sun
orbiting solar power satellites around other stars creates a transport
network throughout the Perseus Arm of the milky way galaxy - and
supports interstellar transportt and trade.

http://www.askmar.com/Robert%20Bussard/Interstellar%20Exploration%20Program..pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_travel

The point is, had we agressively pursued vonBraun's vision - Kenney's
vision was merely a distant echo of vonBraun's earlier vision -
following world war 2 - we would already have starships returning fom
alpha centauri and the other nearby stars - and be experimenting with
artificial black holes created by colliding large quantities of large
shaped iron-56 at 1/3 light speed.


.

Loading