Re: Why NASA should focus on the Moon, not Mars - Henry Spencer

On Nov 23, 9:58 am, "jonathan" <H...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Martha Adams" <mh...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

news:cOeWk.392$us6.293@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



<Big SNIP -- large discussion thread>

Which thread, I believe points in the wrong direction. It
misses a basic, which is the chaotic and violent universe
that we live in.

Quite right, we need to appreciate the absolutely wondrous
and lucky existence we have today.

Seems to me, it's simple to understand
this world of ours, Terra, could be obliterated at any time
by some astronomical event.

What is simple to understand is that the violent and chaotic
nature of the universe means the future is highly...unpredictable.
So long term plans for the future becomes a logical contradiction
when you ...accept...the nature of our reality.

But to be more specific on the very basic aspects of our reality is the
power law form of events. Which, like an earthquake, means countless
minor changes with the rare 'big one'. This fact of our reality means
short term there is some predictability to be found. But long term
extrapolations in either direction in time will invariably confront
a catastrophic event that erases any evidence of what came before, or
what might happen after.

In short, we should live and plan for the near term. Not far term.
Which means addressing near term or currently existing
problems....NOT plan for the long term catastrophes.

The ...facts...of nature mean we should deal with the here and now.

Our place in this universe is
less than unremarkable, and over astronomical time, it is
temporary. So whether we survive or not as a species is
entirely our own lookout.

Having colonies will not perpetuate the species if Earth is
destroyed. Anything more than a token presence elsewhere
just isn't possible and won't provide any sustainability.
And unless the general population (billions) are 'saved'
from a catastrophe, why should they care or pay for it??
To give a select few a slightly longer life?

/Without the ...Earth... there is nothing to live for./



And the best thing we can do in our own behalf, is

Get our 'house' in order, not make plans to abandon it.
There is no where else for humanity to exist.
There is no where else as bountiful as Earth.
We must save the Earth to save humanity.

How can we possibly thrive on a cold, barren planet
if we can't learn to sustain ourselves on warm, lush Earth??

to
build settlements and an economic system here in our own
Solar System.

No, we must find more resources/energy to sustain the
growth and health of humanity. And we must do that
without destroying our biosphere, we must learn how
to manage the biosphere. Not remain hostage to it's whims.
That's the next evolutionary step for humanity, to learn how to
control our environment both technologically and politically.

Not colonizing....that's running away from the problem.

Dry, bare, and rocky Luna is not the place
to start this. I think the reason some people in Washington
are proposing that now, is simply *military* and not future
oriented at all. Those Chinese are dangerous and possibly
evil people (ref Tiananmen Square, not so long ago) but if
we have a base for dropping large rocks on them, that's a
good defense. (If they aren't there first.) Which seems
plausible, but it's *short-term*. Our universe is in this
for the long run.

For missile defense systems the Moon is the ultimate high ground.
With Lockheed et all in the peanut gallery cheering loudly on
for the Moon also. Hence the Vision.



(It's unfortunate people think billions of dollars for
space is "terribly insupportably expensive" but that
*trillions* of dollars for wars (overseas, of course) is
good business somehow.)

Iraq is a new colony for democracy in the heart of
the most dictator ravaged part of the planet.



So I'd like to see the discussion come around to doing
either directly a settlement on Mars, or an Aldrin cycler
that would get us there in a little more time. As Zubrin
has pointed out, Mars settlement is not that big a thing
to do, it's certainly not as large a further jump as the
Apollo program was before it was killed.

We need to focus on breakthroughs in low cost to orbit.
As nothing we do in space will be practical or efficient
until then. So we need a goal that requires as a first
step such a breakthrough. And most importantly in order
to justify the huge costs and efforts of such a breakthrough
the goal must address a proportionally huge problem
or need of the most people possible.

Colonies may help the few, in the distant future from
a statistically unlikely event. That is the absolutely
WEAKEST justification possible.

Fossil fuels and global warming are the exact opposites.

They address a current and near future problem which
effects every person on the planet is very significant
ways.

The very recent bubble in energy prices is a warning.
It's a small scale example of the future of our biosphere
if the current trends remains the same.
That kind of boom and bust behavior shows a very high
rate of change that characterizes systems which burn bright
then suddenly go extinct.

Which is our near term future, we warm/boom the planet so fast
it ends up busting right into the next hundred thousand
year long ice age.

The current six month pattern of behavior in the Dow is the
...other...way systems behave is the rate of change is
more modest. It gently swings around the edge while
the new self correcting mechanisms emerge. Then
springs back to a new more sustainable equilibrium.

If we don't solve our earthly problems, we won't be
around long enough to see the colonies through.

s



Titeotwawki -- mha [sci.space.policy 2008 Nov 23]

Except for the planet Venus.

~ BG
.

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