Re: Lockmart's CEV-----back to the future?

On Fri, 06 May 2005 05:17:00 -0400, John Doe wrote:

> Craig Fink wrote:
>> Same goes for Boeingman (Boeing/Grumman), if they really liked their
>> design, they should go build it with their own money and figure out how
>> to make it pay for itself.
>
> That would only work if NASA had long term plans for use of those
> vehicles. Once CEV has done its few trips to the Moon at "spiral 3",
> congress will get tired of seeing pretty rocks come back from the moon
> and funding will be cut, with NASA no longer having any destination for
> humans in space.
>
>
> For private industry to fund a vehicle, NASA would have to guarantee
> long term business, for instance, sign a contract to provide 4 trips per
> year for 10 years to Alpha or other space station or mars ship assembly
orbit.

Yes, that would be a good thing to do. They could help the industry out by
contracting on all new carriers for some time period. Eventually, picking
the cheapest or the one that meet there needs, selecting new carriers for
a while.


> If NASA had a clear and funded plan to Mars, it could then ask private
> industry to provide launch services and vehicles to help build the mars
> expedition ship in orbit. (construction trucks to bring construction
> materials and put them in place). NASA would build the mars ship, but
> contract with private firms to launch the stuff to LEO for assembly.
>
> And in the very short term, it could contract with them for continued
> access to their space station.

Right, I don't see NASA getting out of the manned space business, but that
doesn't mean they have to build every vehicle. Just the bleeding edge ones
to explore the Moon and Mars while fostering LEO space industrial growth.
Essentially, creating the initial part of a much larger LEO Market place.
Space tourism would be another aspect. Space manufacturing another. NASA
could really benefit from Space tourist prices to LEO, but it would
require that they quit writing requirements to get to LEO. Just accept
what's out there and pay the ticket price.
>
>
> Private industry will not find exploration vehicles. Christopher
> Columbus didn't get his ships from private industry, it got it from a
> government (the king of Portugal) even though there were commercial
> ships already.
>
> NASA can contract to have launch services to LEO and focus on
> exploration ships. Private enterprise can find the space trucks based on
> the fact that NASA will need enough of them to build the exploration
ships.

All NASA should care about wrt going to LEO should be Mass/Volume to
Orbit, or People to Orbit. Not running Space Ports, Space Craft, ...


> Until there is a clear customer for LEO ships, private enterprise will
> regards stuff such as CEV as exploration vehicles that are not
> commercially viable and thus must be fully funded by the government.

Like Airmail helped with passenger aircraft development. But unlike what
happened with the airmail fiasco, they must allow profit, and for multiple
carriers. When the winning bidder in the Airmail business started making
large profits because of a properly designed aircraft, Congress got all
bent out of shape, instead of just renegotiating the price when the
contract was up. Profits builds the next vehicle and makes investor happy,
unlike cost plus contracts that lead to higher costs for more profit.

Economy of scale, the more people that go to the space station, the
cheaper the tickets will become as industry refines their own designs.
Adding a tourist wing to the space station would be a good thing. More
tickets sold, spreading out the vehicle development costs, and cheaper
tickets for NASA to the space station. The first leg of a mission to the
Moon or Mars should include a commercial flight to LEO, advance purchase
required.

To me NASA current plan will take us nowhere. We may get back to the Moon
or Mars, but all the money spent will be like an Apollo adventure. It
won't lead to cheap access to space, just a large funding sink hole.

--
Craig Fink
Courtesy E-Mail Welcome @ WeBeGood@xxxxxxxxx
.

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