Re: next shuutle flight fall 2006

David Ball <davidbemail-1q04@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:lj65p116jm4f0a4ug10d27ei9497q3gcga@xxxxxxx:

> How many of these people who are idle in various parts of NASA could
> be used for design work on the follow-on vehicle to the shuttle?

Some. Not a large percentage.

> Now
> that all the extra telemetry and video has been added so that the
> public can watch what happens during launch, it is beginning to seem
> like the shuttle fleet activity is going to consist of a single test
> launch per year.

That's a misleading impression, caused by the fact that STS-114 had an
unexpected large foam release from the PAL ramp (it's worth pointing out
that overall foam release was dramatically decreased, as evidenced by the
80% decrease in tile dings on Discovery once she returned). STS-114 was
the most heavily photographed launch in history and it was inevitable
that foam releases would be seen that weren't seen on earlier launches
due to the lack of cameras. There were six foam releases above the
allowable levels and NASA has a probable cause for most of them and solid
plans to fix them on the next tanks. The PAL ramp is the tricky one since
it serves an aerodynamic purpose as well as an insulation purpose. NASA
would like to remove the ramp entirely but needs to prove the
aerodynamics are safe first. The flight rate will return to something
looking more normal once foam release has been reduced below the
allowable levels.

> Don't get me wrong. I'm a big fan of the Manned Space Program, and I
> understand the need to keep people on the payroll because you can't
> get them back if you lay them off and they would lose some skills
> while not working at NASA. Are these people just doing practice work
> to keep their skills or could they be used to design and test
> components for the follow-on vehicles?

Some could, but again, the skillsets are too different.

> I hate to say it, but maybe it's time to admit the shuttle fleet has
> reached End-Of-Life and put the shuttle people on the follow-on
> vehicles full time.

Your concern for the shuttle people is touching, but CEV has no use for
such a large workforce during the design phase and most of them will
inevitably be laid off. That's one reason why Griffin was trying to close
the gap between the last flight of the shuttle and the first flight of
the CEV. But it's important to realize that even retiring the shuttle
*now* will not significantly accelerate CEV - it will be ready, at best,
around 2011-12. You can't make a baby in a month by getting nine women
pregnant.

> Is there some other way for us or another country
> to launch the remaining pieces of the ISS without the shuttle?

No. ISS "Assembly Complete" is effectively "whatever configuration ISS
happens to be in when the shuttle stops flying". And if you stop flying
the shuttle now, ISS is not too useful for anyone.

Also, if you retire the shuttle you kiss HST goodbye. It won't survive
long enough for CEV to service it.

So the trade is pretty clear. The decision on the shuttle hinges on how
important you think its missions are. If you don't care about ISS and HST
(as with many in this NG), then there's no reason not to retire it now.

> BTW,
> did congress ever waive that stupid rule about NASA not being able to
> pay the Russians for anything.

They amended the Iran Nonproliferation Act, yes. Now NASA is allowed to
pay the nation that is arming our enemies.

> Speaking of the ISS, how long was the design lifetime of the pieces
> already launched?

15 years.

> Will they be EOL before the ISS is completed?

Some of them will be close, no doubt about that.

> I'd also like to see some more unmanned flights/landers sent to the
> moon and other planets. They're not manned space, but they produce a
> lot of scientific data and good press for NASA.

You've obviously not been paying attention. Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter
and Messenger (to Mercury) are both en route as we speak. The New
Horizons mission to Pluto is scheduled for launch in January. The Mars
Phoenix Lander is on schedule for launch in 2007. Mars Science Laboratory
is scheduled for 2009 but may slip. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is
scheduled for 2008 and a followon mission for 2010.

> BTW, May 2006 was the date I had last heard for the next shuttle test
> flight. When did it change to Fall 2006?

It didn't change - that was Bbo Hallreb doing his usual exaggerated
reaction to Wayne Hale thinking out loud about what might happen if they
can't fix the PAL ramp foam situation by May.

--
JRF

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Relevant Pages

  • Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide
    ... The following is the Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide. ... HAM frequencies for listening to and watching NASA ... http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/view/view_shuttle.html (NASA KSC ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide
    ... The following is the Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide. ... HAM frequencies for listening to and watching NASA ... http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/view/view_shuttle.html (NASA KSC ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide
    ... The following is the Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide. ... HAM frequencies for listening to and watching NASA ... http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/view/view_shuttle.html (NASA KSC ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide
    ... The following is the Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide. ... HAM frequencies for listening to and watching NASA ... http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/view/view_shuttle.html (NASA KSC ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)
  • Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide
    ... The following is the Unofficial Space Shuttle Launch Guide. ... HAM frequencies for listening to and watching NASA ... http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/view/view_shuttle.html (NASA KSC ...
    (sci.space.shuttle)