Re: after the next accident...

George Evans <georgee3@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

:in article pe4ka2tmftoaici3cp5h86hdjloejn0j4c@xxxxxxx, Fred J. McCall at
:fmccall@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote on 7/4/06 12:05 AM:
:
:> George Evans <georgee3@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
:>
:> :in article 1151760091.723824.195300@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Bob Haller
:> :at hallerb@xxxxxxx wrote on 7/1/06 6:21 AM:
:> :
:> :> Griffin is the first admin to over rule the experts and say
:> :> launch anyway lets play the odds..........
:> :
:> :Why are the engineers the experts? They are not any more educated.
:>
:> But they are *differently* educated. Who are you going to believe about the
:> risks of a complex system; folks whose training and expertise is in building
:> and analyzing complex systems or folks whose training and expertise is in
:> managing large organizations?
:>
:> Having said that, the final call belongs to the manager because he's the one
:> who's going to have to go to that uncomfortable meeting to explain any
:> incorrect decision, whether it is a decision to delay or a decision to launch.
:> The job of the engineers is to make sure the manager understands both the
:> upside and downside risks.
:
:Engineers are better at seeing trees than forests. I want both kinds of
:people in the room together.

Varies by engineer. But what managers see is generally neither the
trees nor the forest. They're not even on the same continent. They're
sitting there reading a description of the forest provided by some
engineer.

:Ask an engineer if a system failure means that the decision to fly was
:wrong. I'm guessing most would think the answer is obviously yes. But I
:don't think that's the best answer.

Neither do I (and I don't need to ask an engineer). Getting a failure
doesn't mean that making the attempt was wrong. It may just mean that
the odds crapped on you that day. Now if you go back and do a root
cause analysis on the failure and find that the fault was one you
hadn't considered or it was one that you grossly misestimated the odds
of occurrence on then you arrive at "the decision to fly MAY have been
wrong".

Real engineers aren't the 'black and white' people that most seem to
think they are.

--
"We come into the world and take our chances.
Fate is just the weight of circumstances.
That's the way that Lady Luck dances.
Roll the bones...."
-- "Roll The Bones", Rush
.

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