STS-115 L-2 day Launch Weather Forecast (Forwarded)

STS-115 Launch Weather Forecast

Vehicle: STS-115, Atlantis
Issued: 4 September 2006/1100Z (0700 EDT)
Valid: 6 September 2006 1623 - 1633Z (1223 - 1233 EDT)
Launch Weather Team: 45th Space Wing, Patrick AFB, FL

Synoptic Discussion:
Currently, easterly mid-level flow is in place over Central Florida as the
high pressure ridge that was over South Florida yesterday migrates north.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop just to the west of KSC today along
the afternoon sea breeze, and the western portion of KSC may be affected
by this weather during the early afternoon, before the sea breeze
progresses inland.

Tuesday, the ridge will migrate back to the south, the sea breeze will
develop along the east coast of Central Florida, and mid-level westerly
flow will cause thunderstorms to remain pinned along the east coast,
affecting KSC throughout the afternoon.

On Wednesday, weather is favorable for launch due to a dryer atmosphere
and the launch window occurring before afternoon thunderstorms develop.

Our primary concerns for launch are cumulus clouds within 10NM of Complex
39B and isolated showers within 20NM of the Shuttle Landing Facility
(SLF). The probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch increases
slightly the following two days due to a frontal boundary approaching
Central Florida from the northwest. This boundary with the strong upper
level winds from the west may cause anvil clouds from thunderstorms in the
Gulf of Mexico and along the west coast of Florida to advect east toward
KSC.

Clouds Coverage Bases (feet) Tops (feet)

Cumulus 3/8 Scattered 3,000 6,000
Cirrus 4/8 Scattered 25,000 26,000

Weather: None.
Visibility: 7 miles
Wind: 230 deg @ 8 - 12 KT (60 foot pad winds)
Temperature: 85 F RH: 65% Dewpoint: 72 F

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds within 10NM of 39B; showers within 20NM
of the SLF.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus clouds; anvils from thunderstorms over the
Gulf of Mexico and West Florida.

Sunrise: 6 / 0703 EDT Sunset: 6 / 1938 EDT
7 / 0704 EDT 7 / 1937 EDT
8 / 0704 EDT 8 / 1936 EDT

Moonrise: 5 / 1830 EDT Moonset: 6 / 0534 EDT Illumination: 5-6 Sept. 96%
6 / 1909 EDT 7 / 0644 EDT 6-7 Sept. 99%
7 / 1945 EDT 8 / 0754 EDT 7-8 Sept. 100%

Next forecast will be issued: 5 September 2006, 0700 EDT


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