Appropriate SAS Procedure to Analyze the Effect of Promotions on Sales to Business Customers

From: S. Kavanoor (kavanoor_at_aol.com)
Date: 08/04/04 

Date: 4 Aug 2004 06:56:35 -0700

Hi All,

Our client is a well known office supplies vendor and has about 50
thousand business customers. Customer touch is through catalogs,
direct mail, fax or field sales. Needless to say that the duration of
impact varies depending on the type of touch. For example, catalogs
which are valid for several months would have a longer term impact
than faxes announcing Sale of the Week.

We have customer level data for the last 30 months which includes
sales (monthly) and the promotions they received and dates of the
promotions. Sales frequencies vary considerably. While some purchase
supplies every month others do not for several months.

Our client wants to know how effective the different kinds of
promotions have been and what the best promotional strategy is.

We are planning on using SAS/ETS and are seriously considering impulse
intervention model and distributed lag model of PROC ARIMA or PROC
TSCSREG (Time Series Cross Section Regression). Can anyone advise us
on the suitablity of these two (PROC ARIMA or PROC TSCSREG) techniques
for the analysis of the data we have. If these two techniques are not
appropriate what other technique(s), software should we look at?

Any tips will be appreciated.

S. Kavanoor

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