time series modelling and forecasting
- From: dave@xxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2008 07:26:47 -0700 (PDT)
Dear Fellow Forecasters,
We would like to invite you to send us your data and allow us to show
you what Autobox would do with your data. Are your curious what
answers and information we could bring? No cost and no commitment.
Send us an email with the data and we will send you the results back
to you.
Guess who has a new version of their software that masters daily
data?
We want to announce a new version of our “expert system” award winning
software - Autobox 6.0 that now incorporates daily data issues.
Autobox automatically sorts through daily data to identify “day of the
week” effects, “week of the month” effects and “day of the month”
plus any holiday effects like “Cinco de Mayo”. Did you know that the
social security sends out checks on the 3rd of each month? You may
not know that, but Autobox will identify it and incorporate it if it
is significant. If you were a casino/retail outlet, you would want to
include that in your model!
Leading companies like Experian, Fidelity Investments, Shoppertrak,
RCI, INTEL, Par Pharmaceutical, Fiserv, and Celanese are recently
acquired customers. Find out what they already know!
We invite you to download a version to test out on ~200 classic time
series.
Autobox is really a free academic version in that it allows model
simulation and works with ALL data that is in a textbook without
charge. We supply ~200 classic time series which we have used in our
research to build our algorithms. All of your students can download
and use for free as well. If a dataset is not in Autobox from your
textbook send us the data and we will add it into Autobox for you and
all to use.
Download the new version here http://www.autobox.com/abox.exe
Be sure to review the User’s manual as it lays out all we know in the
field of Time Series methods with 75 pages of educational material.
Autobox validates some critical Gaussian assumptions that have not
always been critically tested. For example, detecting:
o Structural breakpoints in variance,
o Breakpoints in parameters,
o Pulses
o Seasonal pulses
o Level shifts
o Deterministic trends (ie 1,2,3,4,,,,t),
o Lead effects for user specified supporting variables,
o “Day of the week” effect in daily data,
o “Week of the month” effect in daily data,
o “Day of the month” effect in daily data
All models can be presented as polynomial distributed lags in terms of
Y, X’s (both user specified identified) and the error process. This
is useful for “what-if” in Excel. The “what if” is also available in
Autobox itself.
We deliver a special report on early warning that shows the
probability of the last observation being observed before the value
was observed. The report is sorted to show the most exceptional
series from top to bottom so that you can identify the series with
something unusual for “management by exception” purposes.
Autobox is available in BATCH mode and on all UNIX platforms and
represents a true TOUR de FORCE.
We are also launching a new product called AutoBJ that reads Excels
files and writes output to Excel files.
Pass this on to your customers and fellow researchers.
If you would like your name off of our e-mailing list, just send us
back an email and we will do so.
Thank you,
David Reilly
Senior Vice President
Automatic Forecasting Systems
web :www.autobox.com
email: sales@xxxxxxxxxxx
phone 215-675-0652
.
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