Re: GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %

From: Goran Dhemmeog (hcraeser731_at_hotmail.com)
Date: 07/29/04 

Date: 29 Jul 2004 05:48:25 -0700

"George Hammond" <research137@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:<reVNc.205545$XM6.185249@attbi_s53>...
>
> P(bef) * D
> P(aft) = ---------------------------- (*)
> P(bef) * D + 100 - P(bef)
>
> where P(bef) = the prior probability (percent)
> P(aft) = the posterior probability (decimal)
> D = the liklihood ratio

Whatever the other probabilities are the Bayes' formula is of the form
P(aft) = f[D]*P(bef), where f[D] is some function dependent on the
evidence D. Therefore the equation (*), is not the Bayes' formula.

Actually George could have just said that he thinks the probability of
his nonesense is one, and cut the other stuff. The stuff under the
first line, even if correct, is just hand waving that does not
constitute any further proof. Except that we have a demonstration of
an incorrect use of the Bayes' formula, which proves that...

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