Re: GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %
From: Goran Dhemmeog (hcraeser731_at_hotmail.com)
Date: 07/30/04
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Date: 30 Jul 2004 02:56:54 -0700
That is a nice fable, but it is a joke, right? Since you have had it
in a newsgroup before I assume the catch has been already pointed out.
I can give you another similar one (by Charles Dodgson aka Lewis
Carroll):
The Problem: A bag contains 2 counters, as to which nothing is known
except that each is either black or white. Ascertain their colours
without taking them out of the bag.
The Answer: We know that, if a bag contained 3 counters, 2 being black
and one white, the chance of drawing a black one would be 2/3; and
that any other state of things would not give this chance. Now the
chances, that the given bag contains (a) BB, (b) BW, (c) WW, are
respectively, 1/4, 1/2, 1/4.
Add a counter.
Then the chances, that it contains (a) BBB, (b) BWB, (c) WWB, are, as
before 1/4, 1/2, 1/4.
Hence the chance, of now drawing a black one,
= 1/4*1 + 1/2*2/3 + 1/4*1/3 = 2/3.
Hence the bag now contains BBW (since any other state of things would
not give this chance).
Hence, before the black counter was added, it contained BW, i.e. one
black counter and one white.
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