Re: GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %
From: George Hammond (research137_at_hotmail.com)
Date: 07/30/04
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Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 17:02:56 GMT
<snip>
=============original Hammond target post============
GOD=G_uv BAYESIAN P=99.9 %
NOTE: Stephen Unwin PhD (physics/quantum gravity) is author of
_The Probability of God_ (Crown Forum, 2003) in which he
uses Bayesian probability theory to calculate that the
probability is P=67% that God exists.
A 1 page review of this book by Michael Shermer appears
in the current (July) issue of Scientific American on
page 46.
In that SCIAM review the formula used is given as:
P(bef) * D
P(aft) = ----------------------------
P(bef) * D + 100 - P(bef)
where P(bef) = the prior probability (percent)
P(aft) = the posterior probability (decimal)
P(E|G)
D = ------- = the "liklihood ratio"
P(E|not G)
for a succession of evidences (see below) each P(aft) is used as
a P(bef) in the next round of calculations.
I have programmed this formula in GWBASIC to save you using a
hand calculator:
100 CLS
110 PB=50
120 INPUT "HOW MANY INPUT DATA";N
130 PRINT
140 DIM D(N)
150 FOR I=1 TO N
160 INPUT "DATA ";D(I)
170 NEXT I
180 PRINT
190 PRINT "P( 0 )= 50.00000 %"
200 FOR K=1 TO N
210 PA=PB*D(K)/((PB*D(K))+100-PB)
220 PRINT "P(";K;")=";PA*100
230 PB=PA*100
240 NEXT K
For instance, to confirm Unwin's Result for the existence
of God just input 6 when it asks "how many data", and then
punch in 10 .5 .1 2 1 2 in answer to the 6 input
queries. You will find the answer comes up 66.7%
(see SciAm article for more info)
At any rate, I give below six "liklihood ratios" for the six pieces
of evidence I feel summarize the argument for GOD=G_uv, they
turn out to be D= 2, 10, 2, 2, 10, 2
If you punch these six numbers into the program you get:
P=99.9 % that GOD=G_uv is TRUE
=========================
In other words, it is an
ABSOLUTE DEAD CERTAINTY
that GOD=G_uv is correct
=========================
These are the six pieces of evidence used:
1. (D=2) The existence of Cartesian Structure in Physics as the most
prevalent structure (and most prevelent coordinate system) for
the solution of most mahematical physics problems. And the fact
that a simple "curvature" of Cartesian Structure is the basis
of the most famous physics result in history (Einsteinian Gravity).
It turns out that the theory of God is based on EXACTLY THE SAME
structural rationale in Psychometry space.
2. (D=10) The discovery that the Structural Model of Personality
is a 3D-Cube due to Cartesian Body Geometry, with Principle
axes E,N,P, i.e. the discovery that the 3-space dimensions of
spacetime cause the 3-dimensions of Personality in Psychometry
space. This is confirmed experimentally to two decimal points
by 100 years of published Psychometry research.
3. (D=2) The discovery that "psychometric-g" (mental speed/IQ) is a
4th dimension added to ENP (e.g. a time dimension) forming a complete
4D Lorentz metric in Psychometry Space corresponding to (caused by)
the Lorentze metric of spacetime.
4. (D=2) The discovery that there exists a 4D "curvature" of ENPg
caused by the 4D curvature of XYZt of real spacetime. Hence, GOD=G_uv.
5. (D=10) The resulting equation from 1,2,3 & 4, GOD=G_uv which
scientifically explains the major historically recorded claims of
religion, namely:
1. The Cross of Christianity
2. Why God is an invisible man and how he rules the world.
3. Why Heaven is an invisible world and where it is.
4. Exactly what "event horizon" separates Heaven and Earth.
5. How God causes "miracles" and what they are.
6. How the entire historical chronology of Religion is explained.
7. What "kingdom come" is and when it will arrive.
8. Why there is a 4-Gospel Canon.
9. Why there is a BI/2P System.
10. The explanation of both Monotheism and Polytheism.
11. Why there is Eternal Life and what it is.
12. How the Genesis Creation (40,000 years ago) created the
Big Bang of 15 billion yrs ago.. i.e. why both Creationism
and Evolution are scientifically correct; that as St. Augustine
put it: "the world was created "with time" and not "in time".
6. (D=2) How and why "birth and childhood growth" is a "Big Bang expansion"
of Psychometry Space caused by a "Big Bang" in classical gravity
space.
NOTE: That there is NO "negative" (D<1) or "neutral" (D=1) evidence.
All of the existing evidence is "positive" (D>1). This is because
there is in fact not one iota of "contradictory evidence" to be found
which challenges the scientific proof that GOD=G_uv. This is remarkable
testimony in itself to the truth of the equation GOD=G_uv!
ALSO to be noted is that the "starting a priori probability" is
taken to be 50% (i.e. 50-50). Some may disagree with this. However,
it should be noted that the evidence is so strong, that even if you
take the initial probability to be only 1% ... the final probability
still comes out greater than 94%!! So no matter how you slice it,
the result is a DEAD CERTAINTY that GOD=G_uv is correct.
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