Re: help! a probablilty problem about flipping coins...

From: George Kahrimanis (anakreon_at_hol.gr)
Date: 11/18/04 

Date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 02:22:24 +0200

lucy wrote about an unfair coin with Pr(H) = p,
> So the prob. of head is p, a prior probablity.

Note that typically we apply the term "prior" in a different
sense. It is a probability density function of the possible values
of some unknown parameter.

If in this case the parameter is Pr(H), then our knowledge that
Pr(H) = p can be expressed as a prior pdf over the possible
values of this probability: f(w) = delta(w-p) .

Back to the problem now. If we are unshakeably sure about the
value of Pr(H) (as you assume) then we cannot learn anything from
the data.

~ George Kahrimanis

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