Re: any successful stories of gambling using those math/stat theorems?

From: Mack (macckone_at_a_nospamjunk123_ol.com)
Date: 12/27/04 

Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 07:45:43 GMT

On Sun, 26 Dec 2004 09:07:48 -0800, "Richard Henry" <rphenry@home.com>
wrote:

>
>"Mack" <macckone@a_nospamjunk123_ol.com> wrote in message
>news:ehpts0115pde9aijmc6mcog3v38p087qh9@4ax.com...
>> On Sun, 26 Dec 2004 00:34:55 -0600, "Kafir" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >"kiki" <lunaliu3@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>> >news:cqlkqs$dve$1@news.Stanford.EDU...
>> >> Hi all,
>> >>
>> >> I recently learned a lot about gambler's ruin, random walks, and
>gambling
>> >> problems... I am wondering if these maths are really useful in Las
>Vegas
>> >and
>> >> casinos... Can anybody telll some successful stories of gambling using
>> >> math/stat as tools? I really need some motivation of learning deeper
>> >> maths/stat about these gambling theories...
>> >>
>> >> thanks a lot!
>> >>
>> >
>> >Yes, All of the games have probabilities calculated out and the odds are
>> >know by the casino.
>> >You can calculate them out to with math/stat/prob. but you can't change
>the
>> >game.
>> >You can't really determine winning numbers.
>> >You can determine which game has better payout with probability.
>> > (all these lose money in the long run)
>> >Blackjack - good
>> >Roulette - odds are poor
>> >and so on
>> >
>> Card counting works with blackjack
>
>Proven true. However, you need to know how to work the system, find a
>casino that is vulnerable (single deck, wide bet-amount tolerance), and not
>get thrown out or arrested.
>
>> Craps is a matter of knowing when to bet and when not
>
>That is true only if you never bet.

Some bets pay decent odds giving you a better chance of winning ...
others are "sucker bets". Playing on-line removes any "skill" a dice
thrower might have as well as having absolutely balanced dice. Real
dice are seldom absolutely balanced.

>
>> Roulette although it has poor odds is the only game where
>> a group of mathematicians went in and broke the bank. It seems
>> that they were able to calculate which numbers came up more often
>> because the wheel is never 100% balanced. The story is rather
>> famous I believe.
>
>It has never been proven to be anything more than a way to sell books.
>Anyone who thinks a roulette spin can be predicted doesn't understand the
>variables involved. The legend is probably helped along by stories of
>crooked wheels and friendly croupiers, as in the movie "Casablanca".
>

There are a lot of variables involved. The group that did this (in
europe) spent some time analyzing one particular wheel. A
variance of 4% is sufficient to turn roulette into a winning game
at odds of 35:1. American roulette wheels have an extra space
giving the house an added advantage. An on-line roulette wheel
is guaranteed to be balanced so there is no advantage the same
is not true of a mechanical wheel.

Leslie 'Mack' McBride
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Relevant Pages

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