Re: How to determine if a number is statistically meaningful

From: Bob Wheeler (bwheeler_at_echip.com)
Date: 03/23/05 

Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 17:56:32 -0500

>
>>is, in a county that has 4 children in care, and one has such an
>>occurrence, shows a 25% occurrence rate, yet is it meaningful? The
>>lowest possible rate for that county, if they have any occurrences, is
>>25%. It probably doesn't mean much.
>
>
> Right. 1 out of 4 is not particularly "unusual" to observe,
> for a binomial proportion of 4%. But how are you going to
> present that?
>

Huh? The probability of zero occurrences in four is about 0.85 given
p=0.04; thus the probability of one or more occurrences is about 0.15,
which is rather large to say that it "doesn't mean much." 

-- 
Bob Wheeler --- http://www.bobwheeler.com/
         ECHIP, Inc. ---
Randomness comes in bunches.

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