Re: A problem for complete beginners

""Luis A. Afonso"" <licas_@xxxxxxxxxxx> a écrit dans le message de news:
30607993.1122300505743.JavaMail.jakarta@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
| illywhacker; said
|
| <The more fundamental concept is simply conditional <probability, from
which all this follows. There is no need <to fret about the definitions of
'with replacement' or <´without replacment'. Indeed fretting about it can
give the
| <impression that something important is being discussed, <when in fact it
is not. If in doubt, go back to the <fundamental concept should be the
lesson
|
| my response
|
| You make a dreadful confusion between Fundamental and General. Conditional
Probability is NOT fundamental (but general): it comes from the fact that
the probability of an event could be different if some other event occurs.
This is an important refinement which was introduced after the concept of
probability. Everybody, not Bayesian fanatic , can see this. This is common
sense, not else.
| Your post leads the "fouls" to believe that the probability to have a tail
after to observe 4 heads (in flipping a fair coin) is somewhat greater than
½. It seems that you are not concerned about.

1) I do not see the relevance of this. I was merely pointing out that
everything that concerns 'with replacement' and 'without replacement' is a
consequence of conditional probability, and that therefore, in case of
doubt, it is wise to return to this.

2) Whether 'conditional probability' is a 'fundamental concept' in the sense
that you are discussing is of no interest to me. Maybe 'general' would have
been a better word to use, but you obviously understood me or you would not
have been able to contrast 'general' with 'fundamental'.

3) As for your last two lines, clarify please do.

4) The extreme tone of your post in response to something that was not a
criticism but a clarification, coupled with your use of Manic
Capitalization, suggests that if there is a fanatic amongst us, it is not
me.

illywhacker;


.

Relevant Pages

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