Re: stat measures

kaferro@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
> I know that this is a very basic question, but neither one of you
> actually answered it.

This problem has come up before. Our "answer" is, in a sense,
that we think you're asking the wrong questions. Specifically, I
believe Reef Fish's answer to #2 is that it is all random (unless
I misinterpret his monkey throwing darts model). I think there
may be anomalies, but they are not generally tradable, but that
is a more poorly informed opinion than Reef Fish's. IOW, you
should not be expending you time and effort on this project which
is doomed to failure unless you get lucky, which was the reason I
mentioned _Fooled by Randomness_ since it discusses how you can
think your system is working when it actually isn't.

I once opted out of a project to do develop a system based on the
general approach you're looking at. I did so for several reasons,
but one of the main ones was I didn't want people spending money
to get advice that I felt was bogus. If I wouldn't give out bogus
advice and get paid for it, I won't give out free bogus advice
either. You are free to pursue your project and prove me wrong
by becoming rich. I sincerely wish you good luck.

Cheers,
Russell

.

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