Probability of rth order statistic



I have N variables X1, X2,..., Xn which are all iid random variables. I
want to figure out the probability that X1 is ranked "r" in ascending
order among the N items. The CDF of the distribution for these X
variables is F. I can think of 2 ways and I can't figure out which one
(if any) is correct:

1. The number of ways in which I can choose (r-1) variables to place
above X1 (i.e, having values less than X1) are (N-1) choose (r-1),
i.e., (N-1)C(r-1). Having chosen these variables, I have to set the
corresponding probabilities for values less than and greater than X1:

Pr(rank=r) = (N-1)C(r-1) * {F(X1)^(r-1)} * {(1-F(X1))^(n-r)

2. Someone else suggested I use the pdf of the rth order statistic
which is given by:

N!/{(N-r)!(r-1)!} * {F(X1)^(r-1)} * {(1-F(X1))^(n-r) * f(b)

Are either of these correct? I am inclined to use the first one because
the second one is really Prob (rth order stat = X1) which is different.
Maybe, I should use Prob(r-1 order stat < X1) * Prob(r+1 order stat >
X1) but do I even need to do that (can formula suffice). I'd appreciate
any input.

Thanks,

.



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