Re: probability concept

Those that deny (or doubt) that the tosses (or flips) of a real coin, (whatever it is) are:
_____independent or <memoryless>
are invited to construct a model that is both:
A)_____ theoretically sound,
B)_____in accordance with reality, i.e., illustrated by a set of experimental data.

I have not, myself, anything to add to my
________Feb. 28, 2006, 5:15 PM
________Feb. 28, 2006, 7:36 PM
posts.


Bob said

***Are you saying that the probability of getting a head is 1/2 has no bearing on the probability of getting a head? The problem here is that if you hear that H has come up a million times, then you automatically assume that P(H)>>0.5. However, if it's known that P(H)=0.5, then you're ignoring what is known. Bob***

I do not understand if
___The interrogative (introductory) phrase < are you saying…> comes from you do not believe or you want a more convincing evidence.
Anyway: the independence of coin flips is merely a ineluctable fact of Nature.
Exclusively IN THIS CONTEXT I illustrated numerically that that a real coin (with faces head and tail) having a <improbable> probability 0.9 of head could never show a 1 million o heads in a row. Recalculate, please, with p=0.999. You will find, again, that is impossible (an <astronomically> near ZERO probability).
Of curse this fact does no prove that the flips are independent. I simply based my calculation that they were. .
Are you, Bob, interested to starting the <project> above: A), B)? I am not, myself. I wish not to spend my time on it.

________licas (Luis A. Afonso)
.

Loading