Re: Probability question

Most scientists would agree that conducting an experiment would resolve a
lot of uncertainties. So get yourself a revolver and see which method would
kill you first.

Just kidding. Why don't you run some computer simulations if you have
difficulties setting up the problem.

"Schizoid Man" <schiz@xxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ee41r2$9qq$1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I'm confused a bit about this problem.

I have a revolver with 6 compartments that's got bullets in two adjacent
compartments. I spin and fire, and get a blank. If one's pointing the gun
at oneself (for some odd reason), is there a better chance of survival to
pull the trigger again with or without spinning the chamber?

If I hit a blank the first time, then the chances of a blank the second
time are (without spinning) 3/5 or 0.6 vs (with spinning) 4/6 or 0.667. So
it would seem that spinning is the optimal strategy.

However, things get confusing because the compartments are adjacent.
Because the bullets are adjacent it's not possible to get shot by the
second bullet, so the probability of hitting an empty compartment is
actually 3/4 or 0.75, so it would be better to just pull the trigger
rather than re-spin.

Is that correct?



.

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