Re: How many chess games are there?...and who wins?

In article <f2unm29vmtqikkl90ma9846p3leuhnnl19@xxxxxxx>,
Ray Johnstone <ray@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
On 27 Nov 2006 21:33:10 -0800, "Reef Fish"
<large_nassua_grouper@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:


Ray Johnstone wrote:
How many chess games are there?...and who wins?
...
I don't think Ramanujan said anything about the number of games.

Littlewood's upper bound of 10^10^70.5 allowed for threefold repetition
but not the fifty-move rule. Hardy's 10^10^50 was published in his
book of lectures motivated by Ramanujan's work, and as far as I know
is not a misprint for 10^10^5. Like you, I don't recall ever coming
across anything by Ramanujan himself on the number of chess games.

The latest estimate I've seen of the number of possible chess games
(assuming that threefold repetition or invoking the fifty move rule
gives an immediate draw) is ~10^123, which compares favourably with
the number of atoms in the universe (5x10^79, unless I've miscounted).
I don't expect chess to be solved in my lifetime, or indeed in the
Universe's lifetime.

The smart money of course says that with best play chess is a draw,
though a few people (e.g. Weaver Adams & Hans Berliner) thought it
quite likely to be a win for white.

This thread belongs in some chess newsgroup rather than sci.stat.math.
-- Ewart Shaw


In any event, I think the counting of chess moves and hence number
of possible games, a question that requires a tighter definition of
what constitutes a move, in counting the total number of possible
50-move games.
The laws of chess define the chess move(s).
"50-move" refers to the drawn game resulting from 50 moves without a
capture or pawn move.

-- Reef Fish Bob.

ray@xxxxxxxxxxxx
www.iinet.com.au/~ray
--
J.E.H.Shaw [Ewart Shaw] strgh@xxxxxxxxxxxxx TEL: +44 2476 523069
Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
http://www.warwick.ac.uk/statsdept http://www.ewartshaw.co.uk
Will read usenet posts up to the first insult (which may be in the Subject)
.

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