Re: Software roulette statistics


<cunchy64@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1164709891.405678.305250@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reef Fish Bob,

Thanks for your comments, all of which are perfectly understandable and
understood.

I agree that there is mathematically no reason why a software roulette
operator should tamper with the software program given that the odds
are mathematically in their favour anyway for a perfectly 'straight'
game. It comes down to greed. A favour of a 1-2% on a european wheel
is not high compared to other odds that operators use. For example, in
the UK there are software roulette machines throughout bookmakers shops
(where bets are placed for horseracing, football etc.) and it is well
known that these are biased highly in favour of the operator and that
the software wheels are not 'true'. If you are 'lucky' enough to get a
good winning run the software will simply begin throwing in losing
numbers. Greed. The operator is not content to wait, in the long run,
for their 1-2%. Gaming machines (fruit machines) are set to as low as
70% in some places.

On some roulette software gambling websites the operators claim that
their games are completely random and roulette is classed as 'low risk'
and is monitored by outside parties. Fair enough. Some, however, do
not claim this, including the site that I use.

I would again point out that perhaps if you play the roulette game, on
the site I use, 'normally' then perhaps the software behaves and the
winning margins to the site operator may well be only 1-2%. However,
there is a method of playing such that the player always 'wins' on each
spin and then the software (supposedly) does not like this and starts
throwing in the green zero more often that one in 37

In the absence of being able to get my hands on the particular software
algorithm perhaps you would be kind enough to consider the following
points I raise:

1) What is statistically a large, significant number of spins to
monitor the recurrence of green zero? You will recall that I have
monitored 252 games (7580 spins), playing my 'always win' method, and
that green zero occurs, on average, every 30.39 spins with a standard
deviation of 28.26. When can I be reasonably sure that this is
actually 'correct' and not merely a statistical blip?

2) You write that 'If the game is favorable to one side (House or
Player) and each is using the
optimal playing strategy (if there's a choice), then the favorable side
(on a single trail) will always win in the long run". If we (er, you)
actually conclude that the game is favourable to me (er, us) then it is
this 'optimal playing strategy' that I wish to find. I'm making a
pretty good go of it at the moment but it would be interesting to find
the optimal bet placement strategy and when and how to limit the
potential loss on a long losing run of no green zero (after 60 spins,
82 spins, 3 standard deviations etc.).

Many, many thanks for taking the time to reply and I appreciate that
this may not be in your usual line of statistical interest......


Cath
Reef Fish wrote:
cunchy64@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
Folks,

I have a basic knowledge of maths and statistics but not enough. I
certainly know that, on a fair wheel, there is no way of making money
from roulette in the long run.

That is correct, and as long as the game is unfavorable to the Player,
there is no playing stratigy that is better than putting all your money
on
a single bet. (That is the proven submartigale result by Dubins and
Savage in their book "How to gamble if you must").


There is talk that some software-based roulette games are not strictly
random and that by playing in a certain way it is possible to 'force
the zero' and thus defeat the system and turn the odds in your favour,

If you can PROVE (by knowing the exact algorithm of the software) that
it is defective and favorable to the Player (rather than to the House),

then you can exploint that advantage as the Player. But not otherwise.

It is the simplest thing in the world to program a wheel to deliver
each
slot with probability 1/37, so why would a machine need any strategy
to adjust to who is winning or losing? The whole "talk" sounds at
best fishy. It is probably the story used to sucker more player to
play
that roulette wheel.

That is a simple as the whole system of gambling strategy. If the
game is favorable to one side (House or Player) and each is using the
optimal playing strategy (if there's a choice), then the favorable side
(on a single trail) will always win in the long run. Otherwise, it'll
always
lose.

-- Reef Fish Bob.


by essentially making the green zero turn up more than one in 37 (37
numbers on a European roulette wheel), since the software senses that
you are 'winning' (when you actually are not) and throws in the green
zero to try and recoup its imaginery losses.

I might have found such a software roulette wheel on a certain gaming
site. Indeed, I have won a fine sum of money in the last 4 weeks but I
need to be sure that this is not a statistical blip and I would like
help developing the system, particularly from the statistical point of
maximising returns and minimising losses, but firstly actually
confirming that the system is working and I haven't just hit a lucky
streak.

I currently have data from 252 games (actually, 7580 spins) on this
particular website (and increasing). To date, the average spin for
green zero is 30.39 with a standard deviation of 28.26 when I play my
system. The distribution appears to be skewed, but thats where my
expertise ends! As with all European roulette, the odds paid back when
you hit green zero are 35/1.

I wish help from a keen statistician with an eye and enthusiasm for
gambling, preferably in the East Midlands (UK) area to firstly confirm
the system (hopefully), and then to assist in further development of
the staking plan. No money will change hands. In return you will get
the address of the particular website that I am using (I am sure there
may be more using similar software) and an introduction to the art (ha,
ha). I have absolutely no intention of selling this system, and
neither should you. It is for personal use only.

I would add that this is not illegal in any way, we are (or may or may
not be) merely exploiting a software programming error on behalf of,
perhaps, a too greedy gaming industry.

I have avoided the 'gambling' group forums since it seems full of
adverts and is probably regularly visited by programmers in the gaming
industry keeping an eye on their investment.

Regards,


Cath

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Software gambling routines depend on random number generators (RNGs). The
majority are on the single "seed" type in which the next RNG comes from
computer (digital) operations on the previous number. The earlier methods
were of the Linear Congruential form (Knuth), that generated succeeding
sequences of random numbers. These have been shown to be inherently
defective, and as Marsaglia found out generate distinct patterns and
repeating sequences. A spectral test is a way to find out about these
patterns. These patterns may be evident to a player, and the "owner" may be
oblivious of them. Some of the newer RNGs do not have this characteristic.

The whole basis is for the "owner" to get as cheap a "machine" as possible
and to "pay" for software that does not give a fair play. The display and
packaging is much more important than a fair play. With computer software
driven gambling, there is no way that the player can find out if it is a
fair play of a biased play. One cannot in a finite amount of $ obtain a
large enough of a data base to determine if a fair or foul play is going on.
We are talking about 30 million numbers for a test series, and even these
have a "variability", so it is hard to arrive at any definite conclusions..
Obtaining the software instructions is not a guarantee that what you play is
specifically from that software routine. Its all a "pea in the shell" game,
and the famous quote "a sucker is born every minute" and "it's your buck
(not mine)" still holds. Just as in a carnival, lights, colors, noise,
music, nudes etc.bring in the suckers.

Nothing has changed, only that the process has gotten "high tech".

The Indian tribes here have found out that gambling brings in so much more
money "profits" than any other legitimate business, they will do anything to
get them built in or near our towns and cities.

David Heiser


.

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