Re: Roulette: what to do after 100 'red'-spins

AngTalunin <wouter@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:32370921.1167124631204.JavaMail.jakarta@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:

I was not really betting, but it was more about calculating the
probabilties. 100 times red would suggest a unfair wheel, but it can
only be a fair wheel if it can run 100 times red. It's a very small
probability, but there is a probability.

True, a binomial random process is supposed to cover the integer line,
and also to return to zero even after reaching large values. At some
point the probability in the real world is so low that you have to
question the p=18/38 assumption.

But what if it was just 10 rounds of red? Would you still think the
wheel was biased?

The exam answer to your second question would be to calculate the
probability that 10 random sampling events with red probability = 18/38
(assuming zero and double-zero on the wheel). 1/(18/38)^10 is a small
number, but that event could plausibly occur in a universe of many
repeated samplings, and is even likely to repeatedly occur in a world
with tens of thousands of roulette wheels spinning 24/7. I would consider
the 10 run event insufficient for very much action. I would not call the
gaming commission. Espyrian's input suggests that there have been much
longer strings of reds that have not prompted casinos to take the wheels
out of service or to suspend betting.

I usually do not bet on casino games. If I happened by such an event
after landing in the Las Vegas airport, my personal choice might be to
place a bet, but I would not bet a large amount. If I won a few times, I
would not let all of the accumulated money ride after my third successive
red. I would still consider the process "entertainment".

--
David Winsemius
.

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