Re: Weather and Elections

Pat wrote:
Hello. I usually post to other NGs but have a question that I haven't
had much luck finding an answer, so I thought I would ask you. I
haven't taken stats since Grad School, so please forgive my lack of
knowledge -- even knowledge of how to ask the question.

First, are there any decent studies I available to me (and which I
could understand) that shows what influence weather has on elections?
Does good/bad weather bias the voting in any manner?

Second, (I don't plan to do this but was wondering) who would one set
up a model to determine what the bias would be? I could easily get
voting/election information at the voting district level (say, 600
registered voters and 300 actual voters) and I could get the weather,
but the candidates and issued keep changing -- plus some 2-year terms
would have a gubernatorial race every other time.

Politicians always say there's a link between weather and voting but
who believes them?

Sorry if this is OT for you.

I don't know the answer, but it use to be canonical in the UK that the Labour vote would be higher in good weather. Andrew Gelman (http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/) works a lot on voting patterns (check his blog!), so he might be a good person to ask.

Bob

--
Bob O'Hara
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
P.O. Box 68 (Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2b)
FIN-00014 University of Helsinki
Finland

Telephone: +358-9-191 51479
Mobile: +358 50 599 0540
Fax: +358-9-191 51400
WWW: http://www.RNI.Helsinki.FI/~boh/
Blog: http://deepthoughtsandsilliness.blogspot.com/
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: www.jnr-eeb.org
.

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