Re: Is this enough information to make an inference?

Michael Michalchik




__________p(obese|virus) = 0.40
__________p(obese) = 0.30
__________p(virus) = 0.20

1) p(obese|virus)= p(obese and virus) / p(virus)

2) p(obese)*p(virus)
(these two features are INDEPENDENT as you say at 1).

Luis Amaral Afonso

*** Date: Dec 28, 2007 4:09 PM
Author: Michael Michalchik
Subject: Is this enough information to make an inference?

A link has been discovered between a certain virus (adeno-virus 36) and obesity. Casual mechanisms are being elucidated biochemically but I was wondering if there are any general statement we can make about the virus's contribution to the obesity epidemic.
Given:

1) The virus is a causal risk factor for obesity and that obesity is not a risk factor for catching the virus.
2) 20% of the general population tests positive for the virus.
3) 40% of obese people test positive for the virus.
4) 30% of the united states is obese.


Can we infer?
A) What percantage of obesity in the general population is
attributable to the effect of the virus.
B) What is the likelyhood that you will become obese if you contract the virus.***
.

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