Re: Is this enough information to make an inference?

From: Jack Tomsky <jtomsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 29 Dec 2007 19:39:31 EST

My interpretation

A prior probabilities:
p(obese), p(infected)
Conditional
p(obese| virus)
p(obese and virus) / p(virus)

The OP says:

*** 1) The virus is a causal risk factor for obesity
and that obesity is not a risk factor for catching
the virus.***
Which s equivalent to
P(obese AND virus) = p(obese)*p(virus)
AS I WROTE.

This is wrong.

P(obese and virus) = P(virus|obese)*P(obese) = (0.40)*(.30) = .12.

Jack (moderator)
.

References:
- Re: Is this enough information to make an inference?
  - From: Luis A. Afonso

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