AR model with many lags



For a time series of 216 monthly returns, the correlation of returns
to past SUMS of returns over the last n1:n2 periods are

ACF_SUM(01:12) 0.134
ACF_SUM(13:24) -0.025
ACF_SUM(25:36) -0.098
ACF_SUM(37:48) -0.252
ACF_SUM(49:60) -0.031

The pattern of positive short-term autocorrelations and negative
longer-term autocorrelations has been observed in various financial
time series. How should this be modelled statistically? I don't want
to fit an unconstrained AR model with 48 coefficients. I could create
predictors out of the sums 1:12, 13:24, etc., and then regress against
them, but I have no reason believe that the weights on past returns
suddenly jump at multiples of 12, as such a model would imply.
Essentially I want to fit an AR(48) model where the coefficients are
constrained to be "sensible", but the question is how to do this.


.



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